Interactive: Platts Periodic Table of Oil - 5th edition sees new design, carbon intensity data

The Biden administration is working to reduce US aviation emissions by 20% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions for the sector by 2050. To meet this goal, the administration launched the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge to catalyze the production of at least 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) per year by 2030 and 35 billion gallons per year of SAF by 2050. Gevo is currently the third largest worldwide supplier of SAF and has committed to delivering 1 billion gallons per year of SAF and other renewable fuels by 2030. Gevo CEO Patrick Gruber joined the podcast to discuss the policies and market dynamics needed for the significant boost in SAF production envisioned by the administration. He also addressed pain points to deploying SAF projects and sought to debunk some false narratives surrounding the SAF industry. Stick around after the interview for Starr Spencer with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Related content: United Airlines launches $100 million fund to support SAF startups (premium content) US' Gevo inks deal to develop Net-Zero 1 low-carbon SAF site in South Dakota Biden administration unveils roadmap to clean up emissions from air travel More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

Dave Ernsberger in Conversation with Capt. Salem AlHmoudi, Jasmin Fichte and Martjin Heijboer. With the Fujairah Bunkering & Fuel Oil Forum (FUJCON 2023) less than a month away, get a preview into the topics covered in the one of world’s leading conferences across the global bunkering and shipping industry. Uncover how the maritime industry is gearing up for its first in-person event since the pandemic, as the keynote speakers share their anecdotes on the theme for FUJCON 2023 - "The Maritime Energy Transition & Future Fuels", leading developments on the Fujairah port and more.

Accommodating the growth of renewable energy needed to meet ambitious climate goals will require the US to expand the power grid. And according to Princeton researchers, those grid investments could cost upwards of $2 trillion if the US is to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. So who’s going to foot that bill? Well, ultimately, it’s electricity consumers that pay for new transmission, and federal policies in play right now could have a big impact on the final price tag of grid expansion. The Electricity Transmission Competition Coalition has argued that if the US wants to meet its climate goals and lower the price of energy, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission cannot abandon transmission competition, which the group contends can reduce the cost of grid projects by as much as 40%. The coalition’s chairman, Paul Cicio , joined S&P Global Commodity Insights senior editor Kate Winston on the podcast to discuss why competition matters and what changes the group is seeking to a FERC proposal on the topic. Stick around after the interview for Jeff Mower with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Related content: Bill to bar power transmission competition in Mississippi draws criticism (premium content) Transmission owners, consumers spar over changes to FERC's competition rules (premium content) FERC's transmission planning, cost allocation proposal elevates state regulators (premium content) More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

Crude oil futures were rangebound in mid-morning Asian trade Feb. 6 as the market monitors the immediate impact of the G7 price cap and EU ban on Russian oil products that kicked in Feb. 5 and OPEC+'s ongoing cautious approach to raising production levels. At 10:23 am Singapore time (0223 GMT), the ICE April Brent futures contract was up 9 cents/b (0.11%) from the previous close at $80.03/b, while the NYMEX March light sweet crude contract was 4 cents/b (0.05%) higher at $73.43/b. "From weekend chats, traders are very unsure about how the products price cap regulation will work and its impact on the different grades," SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes said in a Feb. 6 note. "So many oil traders were sitting on their hands last week waiting to see that play out. And it could have explained some of the craziness, given the lack of price discovery," he added. The price cap on Russian oil products was imposed Feb. 5 with the G7, the EU and Australia agreeing on caps of $100/b on imports of Russian products that typically trade at a premium to crude, such as diesel, kerosene and gasoline, and $45/b on products like fuel oil that generally trade at a discount to crude. New sanctions banning EU countries from importing seaborne Russian oil products also kicked in Feb. 5, after similar sanctions were imposed on Russian crude in December, as part of the continuing global response to the war in Ukraine. Analysts expect the market to be volatile this week amid uncertainty over the price impact of both measures. Meanwhile, OPEC+ remains cautious in its stance on crude production quotas, with Saudi Arabia waiting for clearer signs of rising demand before committing to hike crude production with its OPEC+ counterparts. "OPEC's continued constraint on supply should keep the market tight," ANZ Research's Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes said in a Feb. 6 note. Analysts with S&P Global Commodity Insights said they expect global oil supply to exceed demand through May , leading to inventory builds that could cap upside for crude prices. Dubai crude swaps and intermonth spreads were mixed in mid-morning trade in Asia Feb. 6 from the previous close. The April Dubai swap was pegged at $75.97/b at 10 am Singapore time (0200 GMT), down $1.99/b (2.55%) from the Feb. 3 Asian market close. The March/April Dubai swap intermonth spread was pegged at 65 cents/b at 10 am, down 1 cents/b over the same period, and the April/May intermonth spread was pegged at 61 cents/b, up 2 cents/b. The April Brent/Dubai EFS was pegged at $4.10/b, up 15 cents/b.

As the operator of the Texas electric grid, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas is familiar with high stakes. But it’s not extreme weather that has the grid operator on its toes this time. It’s litigation before the Texas Supreme Court over whether ERCOT is in fact a division of state government and thus protected by sovereign immunity, meaning it can’t be sued. Merchant power developer Panda Power and San Antonio public utility CPS Energy are leading the charge against ERCOT, and market participants and consumers alike are wondering what it will mean for their wallets. S&P Global Commodity Insights senior power editor Mark Watson caught up with K&L Gates partner Maria Faconti for her take on the case after oral arguments were held Jan. 9. She laid out the consequences for the grid operator, market participants and Texans, and what happens next if either Panda or CPS prevails in their lawsuits against ERCOT. Stick around after the interview for Chris Van Moessner with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Related content: Almost 460,000 customers lack electricity in Southern US in ice storm’s wake (premium content) Texas grid stakeholders seek report on how system responded to Christmas cold snap (premium content) Reports blame regulators, gas generation for Texas’ mid-Feb storm blackouts (premium content) More than 3.9 million US customers without power; prices remain elevated More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

In this week's Market Movers Europe with Henry Edwardes-Evans: EU’s Russian oil ban looms large EU agencies to publish report on gas price cap French nuclear set to rise again Belgium’s Tihange-2 to shut Jan. 31 View Full Transcript Video Transcript The

China has already hinted at its first batch of oil product export quota for 2023, which has left some market watchers nervous amid the current economic headwinds at the start of this year. In this episode, we look deeper at the implications of the oil product export quota from China, how it could impact the oil product supply-demand fundamentals in Asia, and what the rest of Asia can expect. S&P Global Commodity Insights' experts Oceana Zhou and Su Yeen Cheong from the Platts editorial team, and Wang Zhuwei, Manager for Asia oil analytics. Related price symbols: PGAEY00 - Gasoline Unl 92 FOB Spore Cargo PJABF00 - Jet Kero FOB Spore Cargo AAOVC00 - Gasoil .001%S (10ppm) FOB Spore Cargo POABC00 - Gasoil FOB Spore Cargo PUADV00 - FO 180 CST 3.5%S FOB Spore Cargo PPXDK00 - FO 380 CST 3.5%S FOB Spore Cargo PAAAD00 - Naphtha C+F Japan Cargo $/mt (NextGen MOC) More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

The insatiable appetite for discounted Russian cargoes from India and China has offered enough bandwidth to Middle Eastern suppliers to cater to the needs of other Asian oil importers that have that slashed their purchases from the largest non-OPEC supplier since the invasion of Ukraine last February. With India becoming the largest buyer of Russian crude in late 2022 and China posting close to double-digit growth in Russian inflows over January-November, refiners in South Korea, Japan and Thailand are finding it easier to procure term and spot crude supplies from Middle Eastern producers, refinery and trading sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The trends that we saw in Asia in 2022 are likely to continue this year, with China and India importing large volumes of crudes from Russia, while South Korea has cut back buying from the same supplier substantially and Japan not importing from that country," said Lim Jit Yang, adviser for Asia-Pacific oil markets at S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to industry and some government officials, the big shift in focus of India and China toward Russian crude has softened the competition for Middle Eastern crude in Asia, leaving enough room for those oil producers to even cater to the needs of some European buyers. "If India and China were also competing like crazy for Middle Eastern oil, the price of crude might have been much higher than where it is now," said an analyst with a leading global oil trading firm, echoing what some Indian government officials have said in recent months. Surge in imports Russian crude's share in the Indian crude basket in 2021 was only around 2.2%, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. From that level, Russia became India's top crude supplier in November 2022, with the country receiving around 1 million b/d, and were on course to be even higher in December, estimated at 1.24 million b/d, due to competitive landed costs. Over January-November, China's crude imports from Russia rose 10.2% year on year to 79.78 million mt, or 1.75 million b/d, customs data showed. ESPO crude arrivals in Shandong ports for independent refineries soared 36.6% from November to a 31-month high of 2.6 million mt, or 614,774 b/d, in December, according to S&P Global data. The increase suggested Shandong refineries were confident in importing Russian barrels despite the price cap imposed Dec. 5. Market sources said Middle Eastern sour crude procurement had been smooth due to Indian and Chinese refiners' willingness to take more Russian crude that has helped to meet the revival in demand after the lifting of pandemic restrictions. This has worked in favor of the region's overall crude supply security. "It's actually possible to even request for incremental barrels and major suppliers like Aramco and ADNOC would approve these days as Asia's mega importers like India and China are absorbing as much Russian crudes as they want, leaving plenty of room for other key Asian buyers to take Middle Eastern term supplies," said a feedstock manager at a South Korean refiner. South Korea's crude imports from Saudi Arabia rose on a year-on-year basis for the fifth straight month in November, gaining 15% to 29.59 million barrels, data from state-run Korea National Oil Corp. showed. Asia's third biggest crude importer received 309.15 million barrels from Saudi Arabia over January-November 2022, up 24% from the same period a year earlier. Dubai market structure The Dubai market structure has been trending lower rather sharply since the third quarter of 2022 as Indian and Chinese traders shift focus to cheap and attractive Russian barrels, tilting the Middle East-Asian market's supply-demand balance in favor of buyers, according to crude and condensate traders at PTT and another Thai refiner. "Had Indian and Chinese refiners decided to also shun Russian crude and if they were to compete fiercely with other Asian buyers for the limited Middle Eastern supply, both outright prices, as well as Persian Gulf official selling price differentials, would remain high," a feedstock trader at a Thai refiner said. Thailand secured plentiful light and medium sour crude from the UAE in 2022, receiving 360,000 b/d from the major Middle Eastern producer over January-November, up 73.3% from the same period a year earlier, Energy Policy and Planning Office data showed. Meanwhile, Japan saw crude shipments in the first 11 months 2022 from its top supplier UAE jump 21.3% from a year earlier at 1.03 million b/d, latest data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed. "Basically, India and China's strong focus on Russian barrels meant less mouths to feed within the Middle Eastern supply pool, which explains Japan's boost in Abu Dhabi sour crude shipments," a feedstock management source at ENEOS said.

European and G7 countries have secured alternative fuel supplies and can draw on their strategic oil reserves to mitigate the impacts of the upcoming sanctions and price cap on Russian refined products, the EU's energy chief said Jan. 15. The EU will impose a ban on imports of Russian diesel, jet fuel and other oil products starting Feb. 5, while the G7 also plans to implement price caps on those products, though exact levels are still being hashed out. The measures are on top of a similar EU embargo and the G7's $60/b price cap on Russian crude oil shipments that came into effect Dec. 5. "We believe that we gave sufficient time for our markets to react and find alternative supplies," EU energy commissioner Kadri Simpson told reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference in Abu Dhabi. "We have mapped all of those alternative supplies. We believe that we are prepared, and on top of that, we do have strategic oil reserves [which] gives us additional confidence." The EU's 27 member states are required to hold 60 days or more of refined product inventories in storage. Russia has been the EU's largest supplier of diesel, but Simson cited Kuwait's intent to boost diesel exports to Europe fivefold as an example of how the continent has successfully sought to diversify its fuel sources. Bloomberg first reported the Kuwaiti plans Jan. 9, citing a person familiar with the matter, with state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. set to ship 2.5 million mt of diesel, as well as double its exports of jet fuel to the EU to about 5 million mt. Kuwait's oil ministry said Dec. 25 the country, which is ramping up operations at its new 615,000 b/d Al-Zour refinery, had made its first "winter grade" diesel shipment to Europe – a 66,000 mt cargo. Simson declined to name any other potential new suppliers, saying the EU was itself not involved in these commercial negotiations. In July, TotalEnergies signed a deal to import 300,000 mt of diesel from the UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. to cover potential supply shortages in France. ADNOC is also boosting diesel supplies to Germany, after completing its first ever direct diesel delivery to Germany in September. ADNOC has agreed to the terms with Germany's Wilhelm Hoyer GmbH & Co. on the supply of up to 250,000 mt of diesel per month in 2023. Price cap negotiations Talks among G7 countries are still ongoing over what price levels to set the refined product caps, and Simson declined to reveal any details of the negotiations. Nor would Amos Hochstein, the US' top energy envoy, who told reporters separately: "Feb. 5 is when the ban comes into place. We're in discussions ahead of that. We're going to work with everybody to make sure it works." Both Simson and Hochstein were attending the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Forum. The EU has also discussed imposing a price cap on Russian gas supplies. In her remarks to the forum, Simson said the muted oil price reaction to the crude oil embargo and price cap indicates that the market was able to adapt. Key Russian crude grade Urals has been trading well below the $60/b price cap, with Platts assessing the grade at $43.30/b on Jan. 13, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. "We announced our sanctions already in June," Simson said. "We gave relatively reasonable time for our industry and member states for transitioning away from Russian shipments. The impact to our economy has not been significant."

After substantial recovery in 2022 from the low crude prices and oil demand brought about by two years of the coronavirus pandemic, 2023 appears beset with uncertainties. Russia’s war with Ukraine, wobbly oil prices and heavy Chinese fuel demand have dampened what was earlier hoped to be a sanguine oil patch in the new year. With inflation gobbling up what are likely to be low-double-digit capital spending increases and E&P operators signaling flattish 2023 activity, US oil and gas producers seem determined to "lay low" while waiting for greater visibility on near-term energy market fundamentals. Rene Santos , manager of North American supply and production for Platts Analytics, joined Starr Spencer on the podcast to share his thoughts on what may be awaiting the US upstream sector in 2023 as it prepares for a new year of drilling and production and waits for the lifting of clouds cast by events beyond its control. Stick around after the interview for Jeff Mower with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Related content: Commodities 2023: 'Wiggle room' seen for US President Biden to limit oil, gas leasing activity Commodities 2023: Choppy waters for OPEC+ in an oil market clouded by the fog of war Commodities 2023: Demand weakness could be the real oil price cap in 2023 More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

On this week's S&P Global Commodity Insights' Market Movers Asia with Quality & Digital editor Ankit Rathore: * Chinese export quotas mean increased oil product stocks flowing into Asia * Metallurgical coal prices to remain high * Demand factors expected to lower Chinese aluminum prices * India expects bumper wheat crop in coming marketing year

Oil product stockpiles at the UAE's Port of Fujairah dropped 1.5% in the week ended Jan. 2, after exports for 2022 reached the second-highest on record, according to Fujairah Oil Industry Zone and Kpler data. Total inventories were at 20.349 million barrels as of Jan. 2, a two-week low, the FOIZ data provided exclusively to S&P Global Commodities Insights on Jan. 4 showed. Product exports averaged 620,000 b/d in 2022, down 2.2% from the record 634,000 b/d set in 2021, according to Kpler data. Singapore was the largest destination for product exports last year, followed by Saudi Arabia. Shipments to the US jumped 30-fold while exports to Poland, Lebanon, Libya and Cyprus were recorded for the first time. Light distillates including gasoline and naphtha led stockpiles lower, falling 8.6% in the week ended Jan. 2 to 6.827 million barrels, a two-week low. Middle distillates such as jet fuel and diesel rose 1% over the same period to 3.119 million barrels, a three-week high. Heavy distillates used as fuel for power generation and marine bunkers gained 2.9% to 10.403 million barrels as of Jan. 2, the first increase in three weeks after hitting a six-month low a week earlier. Bunker demand was subdued over the year-end holidays and strong winds caused some sellers to defer refueling schedules, local bunker suppliers said. "We were not arranging any new barge loadings [during the week ended Dec. 30]... Exited the market once we have sold out the limited quantities [left for the year] and returned after the holidays," a Fujairah-based bunker supplier said. Supplies may continue to increase as delivery lead times were down to four to six days as of Jan. 3, from seven to eight days a week earlier, according to market sources. The Platts Fujairah-delivered marine fuel 0.5%S bunker premium over the benchmark FOB Singapore marine fuel 0.5%S cargo value was at $37.35/mt Jan. 3, down from an average $38.13/mt during the week ended Dec. 30 and $44.01/mt in the week ended Dec. 23, according to S&P Global data. Still, there is above-average demand for high sulfur fuel oil, traders said. "There's some demand for HSFO and LSFO. Barges have been quite tight across Fujairah currently," a bunker supplier said. The Platts Fujairah-delivered 380 CST high sulfur fuel oil bunker premium over the FO 380 CST 3.5% FOB Arab Gulf cargo assessments was at $48.84/mt Jan. 3, up from an average $42.46/mt in the week ended Dec. 30 and $43.88/mt in the week ended Dec. 23, S&P Global data showed. Total stockpiles for 2022 jumped 29% for the year, the most on record since FOIZ began providing the data to S&P Global in January 2017. Light distillates stockpiles led the gains for the year, up 72% followed by a 45% jump for middle distillates and 6.3% increase for heavy distillates.

Another year rife in uncertainties and price volatility has passed for the energy, raw materials and shipping markets. Let’s look back at some of the key movers and shakers of the year with a selection of S&P Global Commodity Insights infographics, developed by our editors and analysts, and designed by our data visualization experts. Click the images to enlarge or interact. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Conflict in Ukraine following Russian troops launching attacks across international borders on Feb. 24, has had a major impact on prices of key commodities from oil and gas through to steel and grains. Europe is heavily reliant on gas and Urals crude via the Druzhba pipeline to refiners across the region. Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered an unprecedented wave of sanctions against Moscow which are still rippling through global commodity markets. In addition to official sanctions which continue to evolve, major self-sanctioning by industries looking to cut ties with Russia have deepened the market impact. Click here to read key updates on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on commodities US midterm elections' impact on energy policies Republicans have narrowly regained control of the US House of Representatives, portending robust oversight of Biden administration energy regulators in the next congressional session. But a razor-thin majority could complicate efforts to pass legislation affecting the energy sector, amid divisions within the Republican Party and challenges bringing progressive Democrats on board. The outcome leaves Washington with divided government, after Democrats narrowly kept control of the Senate earlier in the week. Click here to read key updates on the US midterm election and its impact on energy policies Asia’s response to managing gas shortages this winter Asia’s spot LNG procurement has nosedived since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the bulk of spot volumes diverted to Europe in the first half of 2022. India and China accounted for most of the decline in spot procurement, and price-sensitive importers like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand are expected to be impacted by rising spot LNG prices this winter. Read more: Energy in the new era The explosive growth of China's electric vehicle sector China has made adoption of electric vehicles a cornerstone of decarbonizing its transport sector. Despite headwinds such as removal of EV subsidies by year end and rising battery raw material prices, China's EV adoption rate is seen undented. Read more: China decarbonization: Ironing out the snags COP27 climate talks With economic and energy supply pressures dominating political agendas, environmental policies have taken a back seat in 2022 in the run up to COP27 in Egypt. Few new climate commitments have been made despite calls for annual evaluation of national plans at COP26 in Glasgow. Click here for more of our COP27 coverage War and climate's impact on agriculture The agriculture markets have been packed with headline-grabbing events, with extreme price volatility for all major grains and oil seeds in the last two years. The possibility of a continued La Nina is seen adding to the uncertainty. La Nina, Spanish for little girl, is a climate pattern having a varying impact on agriculture globally. Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent agricultural commodities spiraling Feb. 24 following monthslong tensions in the Black Sea region that kept prices of key grains such as wheat highly volatile. Click here for more S&P Global Commodity Insights Infographics

Asian oil markets in 2023 are set to witness a dramatic shift in trade flows as Russian cargo inflows rise while African and US crudes are increasingly diverted to Europe. At the same time, market participants are expecting the flow of Asian oil products to countries looking to fill the gap caused by EU sanctions on Russian products, due in February 2023. China's COVID-19 policy would be the biggest factor to determine the rate of recovery in Asian oil demand, analysts and industry sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights. Asian oil buyers would still be hoping for a return of Iranian crude, even though chances might be slim. Iranian crude could potentially bring relief to market supply at a time when the tug-of-war between Asia and Europe for Middle Eastern crudes looks to intensify. "The new year will be a dramatic one for Asian oil markets. From increased diversions of Russian crude to Asia to the increasing need of oil products by Europe from around the world including Asia, the list of factors to dominate the headlines will be long," said Kang Wu, head of global oil demand and Asia Analytics at S&P Global. "Additional key factors to watch will thus be demand recovery in China and its oil product exports, the growth of jet fuel demand in Asia as a whole, as well as the region's refinery run rates," he added. Russia will be looking for new buyers to sell up to 1 million b/d of seaborne crudes, volumes that used to go to Europe before the Dec. 5 sanctions came into effect. Of that, Asia might have the bandwidth to absorb only half , in addition to the more than 2 million b/d it has been buying prior to the EU sanctions. "This will help to plug the supply gap that will widen as more of US and African crudes will now get diverted from Asia to Europe," Kang added. Demonstrating the shifting trade flows, India's appetite for Russian crudes rose to a record high in October, surpassing volumes shipped by some key Middle Eastern suppliers. From a market share of less than 1% in India's import basket before the start of the conflict, Russia's share of imports in October rose to 4.24 million mt, or nearly 1 million b/d, taking a 21% share. It was comparable to that of Iraq and higher than Saudi Arabia's around 15%. In October and November, refiners were in a hurry to snap up plentiful cargoes ahead of any potential shipping or policy hurdles due to the EU sanctions on Russian crude. Analysts are of the view that India would continue to buy large volumes of Russian crude in 2023. Indian policymakers have said buying Russian crudes have been advantageous in keeping inflation under control. China's influence China also has not let the opportunity to pick up discounted Russian crudes pass. From a market share of 15.5% in the 2021 import basket, Russia's share of China's imports rose to 17.4% in the January-October period, or 1.74 million b/d. The year-on-year growth for Russian inflows has been close to 10% in the 10-month period despite China's total crude imports falling 2.7% in the same period. All eyes are now on Beijing's decisions after Guangzhou announced Nov. 30 plans to remove most pandemic-related restrictions and resume public transport. Oil and commodities markets are surely breathing a sigh of relief and hoping that an earlier-than-expected reopening of the entire economy could prompt a demand revival in Asia's biggest oil consumer. Although China's demand for transportation fuel might increase slightly in the near term, the recovery in oil demand won't be sharp in December and January amid rising infections, sources have said. The markets would be watching how infections are controlled during and ahead of China's Lunar New Year holidays in January. China's oil demand would reach 15.7 million b/d in 2023, around 700,000 b/d higher than that in 2022. Total demand in 2024 may continue to increase by another 500,000 b/d compared with 2023 levels, according to S&P Global. "As of now the expectation is that China's oil demand revival in 2023 will be uneven. Depending on how quickly controls are eased, there is always this risk of multiple waves of infections, causing demand to fall significantly at times and spiking at others," said Lim Jit Yang, adviser for Asia-Pacific oil markets at S&P Global. The Iran factor Consumers, fuel distributors, refiners and trading companies across the Far East and South Asia are all hoping for Iranian oil flows to rise to help balance regional markets and tame accelerating inflation, industry and market participants said. More than half of Asian oil market participants surveyed by S&P Global Oct. 31-Nov. 22 saw extremely slim chances of sanctions being lifted to allow resumption of Iranian crude exports in 2023. However, one aspect that a vast majority of industry professionals agreed on was that the return of Iranian supplies would significantly enhance Asia's oil demand fundamentals, leading to more sustainable refining margins overall. The survey of 26 industry professionals across Asia showed that 8% of them were hopeful that Iranian crude and condensate would resume trades during first-half 2023, with 35% of respondents expecting a full return in the second half or before the end of 2023 while 54% expected Iranian trades to remain blocked throughout 2023. "Geopolitics is always unpredictable. No matter how much Asia would love to embrace Iranian crude supply, it's very difficult to see the sanctions being lifted any time soon," said a feedstock manager at Thailand's PTT.

In this special episode of the Platts Oil Markets podcast, S&P Global Commodity Insights leaders Joel Hanley , Sambit Mohanty and Richard Swann round up the events of 2022. From the war in Ukraine to renewed Chinese lockdowns, the team looks at disrupted trade flows and the renewed challenges for supply and demand in a volatile world. Related content: Platts Capitol Crude podcast More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).