The 39th annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore captured the tone of Eastern oil markets in early September, catapulting the energy transition back into focus after the distraction of recent world events. Richard Swann, Dave Ernsberger and Joel Hanley share their views on what was a lively week, packed with information on oil, carbon, shipping, biofuels and more. They also reveal the conference’s oil price prediction for the end of the year.Related: Interactive: Platts Periodic Table of Oil - 6th edition sees new technology, carbon intensity dataPrice assessment: ULSD DAP South BrazilGasoline CFR Suape Cargo DifferentialCheck out the coverage of APPEC 2023 on our website, and visit and bookmark APPEC 2024 for updates on next year's event.Also read: Cleaner vs cheaper fuels: Asia's policy dilemma is here to stay — for now More listening options:
Join Vera BleiHead of Established BenchmarksS & P Global Commodity Insights as they deliberate on the impacts of the G7 coalition price cap as part of our The Inside Track series.The Inside Track series was recently at Asia’s largest oil and energy conference in Singapore from September 4-6. If you would like to see more episodes like this one, please do click here to view the whole event coverage including in-depth conversations with prominent expert speakers, summaries live from the stage and meet our partners!
For many years, Russia was Europe's main supplier of key refined oil products until Western sanctions were imposed in February 2023. Six months into the embargo on Russian refined products, markets across the continent continue to adjust. Prices appear to be rising and shipping times have lengthened as European buyers find products further afield in India, the Middle East and the US Gulf Coast. In the second of a special two-part Platts Oil Markets podcast retrospective, OPEC+ Oil News reporter Rosemary Griffin and Refined Oil Products Managers Gary Clark and Kieran Hess join Francesco Di Salvo to discuss how European oil markets have adapted to a "new normal" following one of the most consequential events in the geopolitics of oil in decades.Click here to listen to part 1 of this special retrospective.Related price assessments: AAVBG00 – ULSD 10ppm CIF NWE Cargo PAAAL00 – Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo PMAAS00 – Propane FOB ARAS&P Commodity Insights APPEC is returning to Singapore this September 4-6Save the date! Stay on top of our coverage of APPEC 2023 on our website.More listening options: We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz
Join Eric Van NostrandAssistant Secretary for Economic PolicyUnited States Department of the Treasury as they discuss Perspectives X LIVE as part of our The Inside Track series.The Inside Track series was recently at Asia’s largest oil and energy conference in Singapore from September 4-6. If you would like to see more episodes like this one, please do click here to view the whole event coverage including in-depth conversations with prominent expert speakers, summaries live from the stage and meet our partners!
Trade disruptions. Refinery adjustments. New arbitrage flows. These are some of the consequences Europe faced as the continent had to wean itself off Russian crude following the embargo, which came into effect in December 2022. Russia has since managed to find new customers in Asia, but military attacks on oil infrastructure in the Black Sea could jeopardize such a strategy. In the first of a special two-part Platts Oil Markets podcast retrospective, OPEC+ Oil News reporter Rosemary Griffin and Crude Oil Managers Emma Kettley and John Morley join Joel Hanley to discuss how European oil markets have adapted to a "new normal" following one of the most consequential events in the geopolitics of oil in decades.KBCOB00 – KEBCO CIF Med vs Med Dtd Strip KBCOD00 – KEBCO CIF R'dam vs Med Dtd Stri AURLA00 – Urals DAP India vs Dubai DWCUB00 – Urals DAP India vs Forward Dated BrentS&P Commodity Insights APPEC is returning to Singapore this September 4-6Save the date! Stay on top of our coverage of APPEC 2023 on our website.We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyzMore listening options:
The G7-led coalition’s price cap imposed on Russian crude is set to be tested as oil prices rise. At the same time, the greenback’s supremacy in global oil trade is being challenged. Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and global consulting firm Horizon Engage’s senior advisor on sanctions, delves into the sanctions and currency impacts on the oil markets on the podcast. She gives her take on the fate of the Russian oil price cap, the effects of price competition among sanctioned entities and whether we’re going to see the end of King Dollar anytime soon.Stick around for Chris van Moessner with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers.Related content:Talk of prisoner swap puts easing of Iran oil sanctions back on table (premium content)Weaker ruble boosts Russian oil output economics while government intervenes to combat inflationUrals crude averaged $70.33/b from mid-July to mid-August: Russia (premium content)
Sep 25 2023
Compared with 2014, the last time oil prices surged to the triple digits, the top 50 US oil and gas companies analyzed by EY more than tripled their earnings last year, according to EY’s annual E&P benchmarking study and earnings analysis. And improved efficiency of exploration and production operations and a commitment to capital discipline are allowing for continued shareholder value. Patrick Jelinek, EY’s oil and gas leader for the Americas, and Bruce On, EY’s West region energy strategy and transactions leader, joined the podcast to offer some context on the payouts shareholders saw last year, expectations for the future and how US producers are navigating both market and political realities. Stick around for Starr Spencer with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Related content: Big US independent oil, gas drillers tripled shareholder returns in 2022: EY (subscriber content) The energy transition looks different to those in the oil patch: panel No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).
Sep 21 2023
The OPEC+ production cuts continue to impact both crude oil and refined products. Dated Brent has reached a 10-month high. Prices in the diesel market are also rising amid supply constraints. Meanwhile, the latest report from the IEA has warned investors of strong demand in Q4. In this episode of the Platts Oil Markets podcast, London-based oil news reporter Robert Perkins and oil price reporters Sam Angell and Sasha Foss join Francesco Di Salvo to discuss the current bullish sentiment supporting prices as market participants react to the latest developments in the oil markets. Price assessments discussed: PCAAS00 - Dated Brent AJSVB00 - Johan Sverdrup FOB North Sea vs North Sea Dtd Strip AAVBG00 - ULSD 10ppmS CIF NWE Cargo More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).
Sep 13 2023
Embracing a new energy order will surely come at a hefty cost for Asia, but will it be higher than the price the region pays for its deep addiction to imported fossil fuels? For more than 1,000 delegates who attended the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference by S&P Global Commodity Insights in early September, a key takeaway was that Asia today is relatively better placed to strike a balance between providing affordable and sustainable energy , as well as ensuring energy security, compared to where it was a few years ago. But the biggest headache for policy makers in the region will be that the pace at which Asia can move away from fossil fuels -- oil, gas and even coal -- won't be anywhere near the speed at which the Americas and Europe are embracing the changing energy landscape. Click here for our full APPEC 2023 coverage APPEC delegates were of the view that sustainability no doubt attracted a lot of attention just before the coronavirus pandemic, but the themes of energy security and affordability quickly moved to center stage when energy flows were disrupted and prices skyrocketed following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. "I wonder what percentage of the population in Asia would be willing to pay huge and increasing prices for the sake of sustainability right now," Prasad K Panicker, chairperson and head of refinery at Nayara Energy, told the conference. Shifting trends The conference highlighted some key trends that could reshape the fossil fuels market over the next decade. One of the key themes that emerged was how Asia's long-term oil demand growth center was shifting to India from China . China has been supporting global crude demand for the past 20 years, but in the coming 3-5 years, its demand is expected to peak and then start to decline. The global market has to look to India or other countries for demand resilience. "China's demand will taper off a little but countries like India are coming up and the demand is growing. India will continue to require oil and gas maybe for a couple of decades, although it would transition and move over to renewables by that time," said APPEC speaker Vivek Tongaonkar, finance director and CFO at Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals. The view got strong support from analysts at S&P Global who said that China's peak oil demand would come much earlier than India. APPEC delegates also provided insights on Asian oil demand revival outlook, saying that China would play a key role in aiding that recovery, even though it might fall short of earlier expectations. In addition, tightening oil market fundamentals will also keep prices supported. S&P Global gave out some projections, saying world oil demand was expected to increase by 2.2 million b/d in 2023, with China contributing about 942,000 b/d. Jet fuel demand, which is estimated to rise 1 million b/d in 2023, will be the main driver of the global oil demand recovery from COVID-19. Asia's total oil demand is forecast to increase 3.8%, or 1.39 million b/d, year on year to 38.1 million b/d in 2023. Picking up speed Even though Asia's near-term oil demand is expected to remain intact, APPEC delegates said refiners are rushing to re-draw their long-term strategies. While renewables, hydrogen and solar have started figuring in their ambitions, a key area of focus for them is to raise their petrochemical intensity to ensure their business models remain profitable in the event electric vehicles and other cleaner forms of energy take a toll on demand for transport fuels. Therefore, going further downstream may be the only viable option to remain relevant over the longer term. The conference also threw the spotlight on some key developments in Asia on the new energy space. For instance, Vitol said its new biofuel bunker barges will be delivered to Singapore in 2024 as it aims to capitalize on the country's growing biofuel demand. These bunker barges will be able to deliver B30 blends to all ships, potentially up to B100 for vessels that can run on them, and even eventually methanol. In the sustainable aviation fuel space, APPEC speakers said that sourcing feedstock and establishing credibility for its emission offsets claims would be key hurdles before its use in Asia can expand in a big way. "Neat" sustainable aviation fuel producers like Neste are exploring possibilities of expanding the feedstock pool with prospects like novel vegetable oil and lignocellulosic biofuels. Neat SAF is a jet fuel produced from a blend of biomass materials-based feedstock with a certain percentage of fossil-based jet fuel. Coming to terms with reality Highlighting some global trends, speakers from energy majors and S&P Global highlighted that energy supplies are on the way to becoming more secure now that the world is coming to terms with the reality that we have transitioned into a "multiplex global order." As far as affordability goes, after factoring in global inflation over the past decade, oil markets had rebalanced at around $60/b in 2015 terms, which is quite incredible given the tectonic changes in supply chains. In fact, oil is so affordable that supplies are being held back voluntarily by major producers. On the energy transition front, a key view that emerged at APPEC is how sustainability has also adjusted to new global economic realities. Dependence on consensus for sustainability is being replaced by a race for technology breakthroughs in a competitive world. In a nutshell, competition will help to accelerate the speed and scope of energy transition, rather than consensus on its own. Visit and bookmark APPEC 2024 for updates on next year's event Conferences LIVE
Sep 04 2023
India offers potential for long-term oil demand growth as the economy is set to grow at a robust pace, shifting the focus from China where oil demand could peak much earlier, delegates said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference 2023 organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights. "China has been supporting the global crude demand for the past 20 years, but in the coming three to five years, China's demand is going to peak and then it will start to decline. The global market has to look at India or other countries for demand resilience," FGE Chairman Fereidun Fesharaki told a panel on China, India and Russia. S&P Global Commodity Insights shared similar views on the trend. "Peak oil demand in China will come earlier than in India where demand may continue to keep growing for much longer given the relative lower base, economic expansions and a young population," said Kang Wu, global head of demand research at S&P Global. Indian refiners attending APPEC also said the country's peak oil demand was nowhere near as it is still pursuing refinery expansion plans. "China's demand will taper off a little but countries like India are coming up and the demand is growing. India will continue to require oil and gas maybe for a couple of decades, although it would transition and move over to renewables by that time," said Vivek Tongaonkar, finance director and CFO at Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals. Postpandemic recovery On the short-term outlook for oil demand, speakers said 2023 would turn out to be the last year of demand recovery from COVID-19. From 2024 onward, the rate of growth would start to slow down. "This year, world oil demand will grow by 2.4 million b/d but next year it could be 1.2 million b/d," Fesharaki said. Kang from S&P Global highlighted slightly different numbers, saying world oil demand is expected to increase by 2.2 million b/d in 2023, with China contributing about 942,000 b/d. Jet fuel demand, which is estimated to rise 1 million b/d in 2023, will be the main driver of the global oil demand recovery from COVID-19. "Looking into 2024, global jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 440,000 b/d, primarily driven by international airlines. While the global oil demand growth will slow to around 1.67 million b/d next year before a likely demand peak in 2027," Kang added. Asia's total oil demand is forecast to increase 3.8%, or 1.39 million b/d, year over year to 38.1 million b/d in 2023, according to S&P Global. Russian crude flows Russia has sprung to become India's top crude oil supplier in 2023. India received 1.82 million b/d of crude oil from Russia, accounting for approximately 37.2% of total crude imports from January to August. This is a jump from the same period last year when India imported only around 470,000 b/d crude oil from Russia, constituting roughly 10.2% of total imports, S&P Global data showed. India was actively buying Russian crude because of the discounts offered as well as the ability of the country's refiners to process those crudes, APPEC delegates said. "Indian refineries have very high Nelson Complexity Index. They are well positioned to process both heavy and sour crudes, as well as Russian crudes. Although heavy and sour crudes are preferred, the discounts on Russian crude have been good enough to attract those volumes to the country," Sanjay Choudhuri, finance director at Numaligarh Refinery Ltd., said. India's crude oil imports from Russia are projected to constitute 35%-40% of overall imports in 2023, which could translate to around 1.9 million to 2.2 million b/d, as long as Russian prices remain competitive compared to alternative sources, such as the Middle East and Africa, according to S&P Global. Russian volumes to China have also grown following the Russia-Ukraine war but at a much lower rate than prewar levels. "Before the war, China was anyway importing about 1.6 million-1.6 million b/d of Russian oil. Now, it has risen to about 2 million b/d/ So the growth is not that huge, compared to what we have seen in India. The bulk of the incremental growth in China has come due to buying by the independent refiners," Kang said. But he added that the overall volumes of Russian oil flowing to China and India may have reached the peak and there may not be bandwidth for the two countries to take in more. Russian seaborne oil exports fell to an 11-month low in August, according to tanker tracking data, as heavy refining maintenance hit oil products exports while output cut pledges and Black Sea tensions continued to limit crude flows. Total Russian shipped crude and oil products exports averaged 5.27 million b/d, the lowest since September 2022 and 650,000 b/d below prewar levels, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data. Russia-origin seaborne crude shipments averaged 3 million b/d in August, little changed on the month, but about 800,000 b/d lower compared with the April-May average and below the average prewar levels of 3.1 million b/d, CAS data showed. Crude shipments to India, currently Russia's biggest oil buyer, fell to a six-month low in August, the data showed.
Sep 04 2023
Delegates attending the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, or APPEC, will seek answers on Asian oil demand revival, China's role in aiding that recovery, tightening oil market fundamentals and the prospects of global recession when they meet in Singapore in the first week of September. In addition, how Asian energy companies and policy makers will craft their future and new energy strategies for a region heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports will also be on their minds during the three-day conference, set to take place over Sept. 4-6. While the recent indicators of the US economy reflect a stronger-than-expected performance, China's recovery falling below the expectations of analysts and policy makers is likely to keep the oil market on tenterhooks in the foreseeable future. But despite a mixed global macroeconomic picture, we expect oil market fundamentals to remain tight in the third quarter. Signs of tighter fundamentals have started to have an effect on prices, with Platts Dated Brent up sharply from mid-$70s/b in July. In addition, the recent moves by OPEC and its allies have also been supportive for the oil market, with Saudi Arabia extending its 1 million b/d cut to September and Russia agreeing to cut 300,000 b/d. S&P Global Commodity Insights expects global oil stock draws to average 2 million b/d from mid-June through September. Stock draws are anticipated to moderate in Q4 and to turn into builds in early 2024. Following this fundamental trend, Platts Dated Brent is expected to average $83/b in Q3 2023 and then moderate to $81/b in Q4 2023. Looking at the entire year, Platts Dated Brent is expected to average $81/b in 2023. China factor versus fundamentals For commodity investors, although China remains key and the one we are watching closely, the recent uptick in oil prices is a testament that fundamentals eventually matter. We have lowered the forecast for China's real gross domestic product growth from 5.5% to 5.2% for 2023 and from 5.0% to 4.8% for 2024. The sluggish rebound observed in recent quarters, particularly in the industrial sector, is attributable to feeble demand, both domestically and externally. However, the likelihood of the government introducing large-scale stimulus policies to instigate a vigorous recovery is relatively low. While China's oil demand is expected to peak in September-October, the sequential growth rate may not match previous year levels. But despite weakening economic expectations for China, we expect that, with the support of seasonal consumption, China could witness a surge in oil demand during September-October this year. The arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays could spur road and air travel demand, potentially boosting gasoline and jet fuel demand. In addition, with the resumption of sea fishing, autumn harvesting and the anticipated industrial activity revival as high temperatures recede, diesel demand in the third quarter is expected to recover from its summer low. On an annual basis, we expect total oil demand in China to increase by 6.1%, or 940,000 b/d, year over year in 2023 to 16.4 million b/d, and up by 3.5% in 2024. India alters Asian oil flows With Russia moving to become the number one crude supplier to India, APPEC participants will be looking for signals on whether the volumes have reached their peak or could go higher. And more importantly, APPEC delegates will be looking for answers on whether oil flows would revert to pre-Ukraine war patterns once the conflict ends. India received 1.82 million b/d of crude oil from Russia, accounting for approximately 37.2% of India's total crude oil imports from January to August. This is a significant increase from the same period last year when India imported only around 0.47 million b/d of crude oil from Russia, constituting roughly 10.2% of its total imports. Looking ahead to the upcoming festive season from September onward, it is anticipated that India's crude oil imports from Russia will remain at elevated levels. This is because of high oil demand, with refiners expected to operate at maximum capacity. India's crude oil imports from Russia are projected to constitute approximately 35%-40% of its overall imports in 2023, which could translate to around 1.9 million-2.2 million b/d, as long as Russian prices remain competitive compared to alternative sources, such as the Middle East and Africa. Changes to the refining landscape Another key trend the Asian region is witnessing is that refinery operations are gathering momentum. For instance, in India, as the festival season in September and October approaches, Indian refinery operations are anticipated to pick up, with crude runs expected to be around 5.3 million-5.4 million b/d in the October-December period, primarily due to strong domestic demand and favorable profit margins. Refining activities are expected to be robust in the second half of the year, driven by domestic demand. India's oil demand is predicted to grow by 242,000 b/d in 2023, a slight revision down by 4,000 b/d from the previous update. The majority of this growth, over 60%, will likely be due to middle distillates. And on the long-term refining theme, APPEC delegates will aim to also throw the spotlight on how refiners in Asia are fast carving out their long-term diversification plans. While renewables, hydrogen and solar also figure in their ambitions, a key area of focus for refiners is raising their petrochemical intensity to ensure that their business models remain profitable in the event electric vehicles and other cleaner forms of energy take a toll on demand for transport fuels. Therefore, for many refiners, going further downstream is a viable option for remaining relevant in the longer term. A version of this article was first published on ET EnergyWorld (India) and Caixin (China).
Sep 03 2023
Asian and Persian Gulf refineries will continue to depend heavily on Middle Eastern crude grades as their staple diet, regardless of price swings and changes in key benchmark spreads, because there's a limit to how much light sweet US crude would be able to take up the refiners' crude slate, industry executives and trading sources said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference 2023 organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights. OPEC and its allies are expected to maintain the tight supply strategy for a lengthy period and aggressive output cuts led by top producing members, including Saudi Arabia, have supported benchmark crude prices and the Dubai price structure, industry executives and refinery sources said during early panel discussions and networking sessions Sept. 4. "The [OPEC+ production cuts] have been relatively successful ... Benchmark Platts Dated Brent has been pretty stable between $72/b and $88/b for nearly a year now," said Vitol CEO Russell Hardy during a panel discussion. "The prices are going to the point of equilibrium where sour crude economics, which should always be better than sweet economics, have sort of evened up." "Prices have been elevated due to the OPEC+ [production cut] activities ... Saudi Arabia is clearly meeting its goal," said Ben Luckock, cohead of oil trading at commodities trading house Trafigura during a panel discussion. Despite the production cuts, top OPEC and Middle Eastern producers have ensured their term supplies to Asian buyers remain stable. Asian refiners would look to secure base feedstock requirements from Persian Gulf suppliers, even if the rising Dubai market structure and higher Middle Eastern official selling prices could impact refining margins, executives and delegates said. Major Middle Eastern OPEC members may have led the production cuts but they have respected Asia's demand and monthly term lifting allocations have not been reduced, delegates of an Indian and a Japanese refiner told S&P Global on the sidelines of APPEC. "Saudi Arabia wants their consumers to be satisfied," Luckock said. Saudi Arabia said it will continue its 1 million b/d voluntary cut that is holding crude production at a two-year low of 9 million b/d through at least September. Still, Saudi Aramco has fully met Asian buyers' nominations for September-loading term crude oil supply, S&P Global reported previously. Narrowing Brent-Dubai spread A sharp downtrend seen in the Brent-Dubai benchmark price spread due to strength in the Persian Gulf market structure could lure Asian traders to take more sweet crudes from the US and elsewhere, but many Asian refiners would continue to seek and depend heavily on Middle Eastern sour crudes, the executives and trading sources said. The Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps, or EFS, spread -- a key indicator of Brent's premium to the Middle Eastern benchmark -- flipped to negative at minus 19 cents/b on Aug. 24, marking the lowest spread since minus 22 cents/b on Oct. 20, 2020, S&P Global data showed. A negative EFS spread makes various sweet crude grades produced in the Americas, North Sea and Africa linked to the European Dated Brent benchmark more economical compared with Dubai-linked grades for Asian refiners. Still, many new complex and highly sophisticated refineries in India, Kuwait, China and others broadly prefer to buy sour crude, though there's not enough of Middle Eastern sour crude supplies to go around, Hardy said. Echoing this were South Korean and Japanese refinery delegates at APPEC, who said their mainstay would continue to be Middle Eastern sour crude grades. Price swings, such as the Brent-Dubai spread flipping to negative, only present short-term opportunities to procure more light sweet US crude. "South Korean refineries are configured and designed to crack heavy high sulfur crude at maximum efficiency, so Middle Eastern sour grades will always be the primary feedstock," said a trading and logistics manager at a South Korean refiner on the sidelines of APPEC. "We are flexible enough to take a lot of sweet [US and African grades] as well and the current EFS really works well for more US imports, but the staple Middle Eastern sour crude feed structure will never change." "I think Japan would take the chance to buy a few light sweet US crude cargoes depending on the arbitrage window, but Saudi Arabian and UAE crude is the primary fit feedstock for Japanese [refining] system," said a delegate representing a Japanese refiner. The US became the fifth largest crude supplier to Japan in July, when the Asian consumer imported 2.18 million barrels, or 70,211 b/d, compared with nil imports in the year ago and more than four times from 478,260 barrels, or 15,942 b/d, in June, latest data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed. Still, around 2.43 million b/d, or around 95% of Japan's total crude imports of 2.554 b/d during the first seven months, were sourced from the Middle East, the data showed.
Sep 01 2023
Asia's oil demand revival, China's much anticipated role in aiding that recovery, heightened concerns around managing legal, regulatory and sanctions risks, as well as the region’s affinity for embracing new energy will be some of the key themes in focus at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, or APPEC 2023, organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights and scheduled to take place in Singapore from Sept 4-6, 2023. In a wide-ranging discussion with Asia Editorial Lead Sambit Mohanty, three senior market experts at S&P Global Commodity Insights -- Calvin Lee, Asia Head of Content, Mriganka Jaipuriyar, Asia Head of News, and Kang Wu, Head of Global Demand and Asia Analytics -- share their insights on the key themes that could potentially dominate the discussions at APPEC, as well as how Asian energy companies and policy makers are crafting out their future energy strategies in a region heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports. S&P Commodity Insights APPEC is returning to Singapore this September 4-6 . Save the date ! Stay on top of our coverage of APPEC 2023 on our website. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).
Aug 30 2023
The Brent market has undergone a long-awaited evolution this year, with the addition of WTI Midland crude meaning that the complex more accurately than ever captures the fundamentals and pricing of light sweet crude oil in the Atlantic Basin. Since the lifting of the US crude export ban in 2015, WTI Midland has played an increasingly influential role in the pricing of crude being delivered into Europe. North Sea grades such as Forties and Ekofisk, Mediterranean grades such as CPC Blend and Azeri Light and West African grades such as Qua Iboe and Bonny Light have all had to adapt to over one million barrels of light sweet US crude being delivered each day into Europe. In the period since US crude became accessible to the global market, refiners across Europe have benefitted from the increased choice of crude and have adjusted refining slates accordingly and optimized between WTI Midland and its Atlantic Basin competitors. Prior to May 2023 the value of grades within Dated Brent were already being impacted, albeit in a somewhat opaque way, by the steady flow of WTI Midland into Europe. Now the pricing of this established trade flow has been illuminated and made transparent by its incorporation into the Brent complex. Pricing WTI Midland's role in the price of Dated Brent has been much discussed since the grade's introduction for June 2023 cargoes. An examination of assessment data since May 2 clearly demonstrates that WTI Midland has been influential, but not overwhelming. The Platts Dated Brent assessment is defined by the most competitive, or cheapest, grade every day. S&P Global Commodity Insights gives each day in the 10-month ahead assessment range a value for each grade. The final assessment is reflective of any number of the six grades, depending on what is the most competitive valued grade on each day, so a single assessment could be representative of 40% Midland, 40% Forties and 20% Brent, for example. In June Midland was typically the most competitive grade, while in August Forties has most often helped define the benchmark. Liquidity The addition of WTI Midland to Dated Brent has facilitated a large increase in the amount of deliverable crude into Dated Brent, and this has been reflected in a sharp uptick in activity in the Platts Market on Close assessment process. Since May through July, a diverse group of oil majors and traders collectively traded 40 cargoes of WTI Midland comprising a total volume of 28 million barrels of crude. At 16.8 million barrels, July 2023 was the largest month for overall Dated Brent cargo trades since January 2021, and the joint-fourth busiest month on record. Performance tracking As part of an ongoing commitment to upholding the highest standards of integrity and transparency in its Platts Dated Brent MOC process, S&P Global monitored performance on the 17 WTI Midland CIF Rotterdam trades published in the MOC process during the first two months of May and June. This post-deal tracking enables S&P Global to determine the actual performance of the participants in the trades and the validity of their inputs. As part of this, S&P Global reviewed various aspects of performance, including timeliness of nominations and eventual delivery, as well as published parameters of the trades, including quality and volume. Of the 17 trades tracked, two were booked out upon mutual agreement, while all others were physically delivered to buyers. Although all 17 published WTI Midland trades were fully performed upon, two of the cargoes initially provided did not meet the parameters of the published trades. In both cases, full performance was eventually reached, with the entities involved coming to bilateral agreement on final terms. Physical conditions regarding logistics -- which are beyond the control of the seller or buyer -- may result in lateness, quality issues or conditions seen as a deviation from the original wording in the reported trade, for example late delivery/loading. As per methodology, if a transaction becomes difficult, the party causing the issue must seek resolution including alternative loadings, qualities, dates or book outs. S&P Global also reviewed the quality of all cargoes, and the table within the graphic shows the minimum and maximum values of some key quality metrics. Notably, only one cargo out of all tracked exceeded the WTI Midland specification that S&P Global reflects in its assessments. However, all cargoes that were eventually delivered to buyers fully met the specification. The table below shows the transactions that were monitored for performance in May & June: Trade Date Buyer Seller Traded Laycan Loadport Vessel Remarks 5/22/2023 Vitol SA BP Oil International Jun 14-18 Enbridge Ingleside Chrysanthemum Booked Out 5/24/2023 Vitol SA BP Oil International Jun 14-18 Plains Eagle Ford Advantage Award 5/26/2023 Vitol SA Gunvor SA Jun 12-16 Enbridge Ingleside Sparto 5/30/2023 Vitol SA TOTSA Jun 12-16 Seabrook Dubai Charm 6/2/2023 Vitol SA Trafigura PTE LTD Jun 25-29 - - Booked Out 6/5/2023 Vitol SA Gunvor SA Jun 18-22 Enterprise Houston Seaprincess 6/7/2023 Vitol SA TOTSA Jun 29-3 Enterprise Houston Sea Jaguar 6/12/2023 Glencore UK TOTSA Jul 4-8 Seabrook Thyrrhenian Sea 6/13/2023 Trafigura PTE LTD TOTSA Jul 1-5 Buckeye TX Hub Dubai Attraction 6/14/2023 Trafigura PTE LTD Gunvor SA Jul 10-14 Enterprise Houston Nobleway 6/16/2023 BP Oil International TOTSA Jul 4-8 Enterprise Houston STI Connaught 6/16/2023 BP Oil International Gunvor SA Jul 7-11 Enterprise Houston Ghat 6/21/2023 Mercuria SA Gunvor SA Jul 10-14 Seabrook Freedom Glory 6/23/2023 Trafigura PTE LTD BP Oil International Jul 7-9 Enterprise Houston STI Connaught 6/26/2023 Trafigura PTE LTD Gunvor SA Jul 15-19 Energy Transfer Houston Everglades 6/28/2023 Mercuria SA Vitol SA Jul 23-27 Enterprise Houston Aqualegend 6/28/2023 Mercuria SA Vitol SA Jul 23-27 Enterprise Houston Pantelis
Aug 24 2023
Asia's oil demand revival, China's much anticipated role in aiding that recovery, heightened concerns around managing legal, regulatory and sanctions risks , as well as the region’s affinity for embracing new energy will be some of the key themes in focus at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, or APPEC 2023, organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights and scheduled to take place in Singapore from Sept 4-6, 2023. In a wide-ranging discussion with Asia Editorial Lead Sambit Mohanty, three senior market experts at S&P Global Commodity Insights -- Calvin Lee, Asia Head of Content, Mriganka Jaipuriyar, Asia Head of News, and Kang Wu, Head of Global Demand and Asia Analytics -- share their insights on the key themes that could potentially dominate the discussions at APPEC, as well as how Asian energy companies and policy makers are crafting out their future energy strategies in a region heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports. S&P Commodity Insights APPEC is returning to Singapore this September 4-6 . Save the date! Stay on top of our coverage of APPEC 2023 on our website. More listening options: We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).
Aug 20 2023
China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia are showing signs of a rebound in August after declines in July, but those gains are not likely to last as refineries wait for the next announcement on import quotas. Saudi Arabia's crude shipment to China are averaging 1.9 million b/d in August, up from 1.3 million b/d a month earlier, while Russia inflows are at 1.38 million b/d, up on month from 1.36 million b/d, according to Kpler shipping data. Imports from Saudi Arabia were at a 12-month low of 1.33 million b/d in July, while Russian shipments dropped to 1.91 million b/d in the month, the lowest since April, China General Administration of Customs data showed. Although Saudi Arabia's official selling prices for August loading were high, Middle East crudes remained competitive with the addition of shipping freight, according to a source within Unipec. Both state-run and private Chinese refineries are taking in more barrels, the source said. Refinery maintenance July customs data could have been understated by as much as 1 million b/d on paperwork and accounting delays, and could be corrected upward for August data, said Iman Nasseri, Middle East managing editor at Facts Global Energy in Dubai. "Some Chinese refiners have been limited by refinery maintenance and quota constraints, and some of the capacities which were on maintenance are coming back this month, hence higher runs in August are expected," Nasseri said. "Still, refiners are waiting for the next announcement on quotas." Some of China's small refineries have been buying fuel oil as an alternative to crude as China cracked down on imports of rebranded crude under the name of "diluted bitumen," but the trade has largely resumed since June, he said. "After nominating less term volumes from Saudi Arabia due to higher OSPs in the past two months, Chinese refiners, including NOCs such as CNPC and Sinopec and mega independents such as Hengli and Rongsheng, have resumed their usual term volumes for September loading," he said. "But again, as the new quota announcement is delayed, we expect Chinese importers to be less active in the spot market yet." OPEC+ cuts Indications of higher Saudi Arabian volumes come amid a record cut in the country's crude production in line with the ongoing OPEC+ production controls. In April, Saudi Arabia said it would slash 500,000 b/d of its crude production in concert with several OPEC+ allies, which are contributing an additional 1.2 million b/d of their own cuts, in a bid to tighten the market and reverse a slump in oil prices. The kingdom then said it planned to make a unilateral 1 million b/d cut for July and August, bringing production down to a two-year low of 9 million b/d. Saudi Arabia dropped its production to 9.05 million b/d in July, the lowest level since June 2021, according to the latest Platts survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The decline was not as steep as its pledged cut, with production falling 940,000 b/d on June volumes. "Saudi energy diplomacy has always been versatile and adaptive during market shifts," said Abdulaziz al-Moqbel, an independent energy consultant based in Al-Khobar. "One could easily notice that Chinese oil demand is still strong and increasing regardless of many macroeconomic indicators," he said. "The Saudi exports have relied on three foundations, commitment, priority and competitiveness. These three foundations had made the Saudi oil exports able to endure various scenarios of market conditions."
Aug 14 2023
In the decades to follow, oil and gas have been projected to be part of the energy mix. It is, however, critical to ensure that the upstream operations underpinning this development resort to a low carbon footprint. S & P Global Commodity Insights uses a bottom up approach in this interactive to outline the evaluation of the ongoing crude production, provisioning for transparent insights into best practices associated with decarbonizing upstream production. Click here to view the full-size interactive .
Aug 09 2023
OPEC continues to forecast demand for its oil growing significantly up to the end of 2023, albeit at a slightly lesser rate than it previously expected, in a sign it expects a significant tightening of the market in coming months. In its monthly oil market report, OPEC said demand for its crude will grow 300,000 b/d in the second quarter, 1.3 million b/d in the third quarter and 2 million b/d for the fourth quarter compared to the same periods of 2022. But for the full year 2023, the call on OPEC crude was estimated at 29.3 million b/d, down by 100,000 b/d compared to its previous report, with non-OPEC supply expected higher. It also revised down its estimates of demand for OPEC crude in 2024 by 100,000 b/d from the previous month's assessment to stand at 30.1 million b/d. That was significantly above July production volumes, which were 27.31 million b/d, according to an average of secondary source estimates. Production was down 836,000 b/d month on month, as Saudi Arabia implemented a voluntary 1 million b/d cut. Saudi Arabia self-reported a 943,000 b/d decline in production on the month. Nigeria also reported a significant drop of 168,000 b/d in output following issues with key export grade Forcados. OPEC and its allies plan to maintain aggressive supply restraint into the autumn in a bid to support prices. Saudi Arabia has said its extra unilateral cut of 1 million b/d will run through the end of September, while non-OPEC ally Russia has committed to a 500,000 b/d drop in crude exports for August and 300,000 b/d for September. Uncertainty remains over compliance with the latest pledges, as well as its policy beyond September, however. OPEC expects non-OPEC liquids supply to expand by 1.5 million b/d in 2023, a slight upward revision from its previous report, with the US, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan, Guyana and China expected to drive supply growth. In 2024 it expects non-OPEC liquids output to grow by 1.4 million b/d. The production cuts should shrink global oil stocks significantly and reverse the last few months of builds. Commercial inventories held by OECD countries were up 4.2 million barrels in June to stand at 2.828 billion barrels, according to the OPEC report. OPEC retained its estimates for world oil demand in 2023 and 2024, as upward revisions to first quarter data for OECD America and Europe were completely offset by downward revisions to 2Q23, mainly in Europe and Other Asia. World oil demand in 2023 is expected to grow by 2.4 million b/d, unchanged from the last month's assessment. OPEC said China was expected to see lower-than-expected oil demand growth in the second half of 2023, with recent economic indicators for the economy showing a slowing trend in industrial production. It expected Chinese oil demand to grow 710,000 b/d in the third quarter, and 590,000 b/d in the fourth quarter, both compared to 2022 levels. OPEC revised up world economic growth for both 2023 and 2024 to stand at 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively.
Aug 07 2023
OPEC on Aug. 4 renewed production cuts that are expected to tighten global oil supplies and in turn keep upwards pressure on oil prices which have seen several consecutive weeks of gains recently. Tim Evans , founder of the new consultancy Evans on Energy, joined the podcast to discuss OPEC’s production policy, the group’s objectives and what that means for oil prices. He hit on the economics as well as the politics behind some of the OPEC+ alliance’s decisions, possible tensions brewing within the alliance and whether the US can combat their desire for a tighter physical market and subsequent higher prices. Stick around for Binish Azhar with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Then, tell us more about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our survey here: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz Related content: OIL FUTURES: Crude prices coast as Saudi Arabia, Russia renew output cuts until September (premium content) OPEC+ committee maintains crude quotas in bid to keep tightening market (premium content) Saudi Arabia, Russia extend oil cuts ahead of OPEC+ committee meeting No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).
Aug 04 2023
Join us at APPEC on September 4-6 in Singapore as we unite industry experts, thought leaders and key stakeholders to discuss the most pressing issues shaping the energy sector at the core of Asia’s most important meeting place. Register now View Full Transcript Video Transcript The
Aug 04 2023
Recording changes to Russian oil exports and EU oil imports since the war in Ukraine Russia’s war in Ukraine has triggered a major upheaval in the global oil markets, forcing Moscow to find alternative buyers and Europe to source new supplies as Western sanctions seek to clamp down on Moscow’s vital oil revenues. With an EU embargo and the G7 price cap on Moscow's oil now fully in place, Russian seaborne crude exports have remained largely resilient as displaced volumes of its discounted oil flow East. Russian oil product exports have also mostly held up with new buyers in Africa absorbing Russian diesel and other fuels now banned from Europe. Related story: Russian oil exports hit 11-month low as refinery downtime, output cuts bite (Latest update: September 4, 2023)