Infographic: European gas, power markets exit crisis mode, risks remain

Does the global trade industry require up to USD 500 million in working capital to maintain its flow? In the DMCC’s report released in the last year, one of the key areas of recommendation is the importance of enhanced trade finance mechanisms to facilitate trade flows globally. Rising interest rates, price volatility and trade pattern changes which contributes to the increased financial costs. With the pandemic allowing for devise of newer trade routes, consolidating the existing once, especially in concern with scarcity of bunker space. Featuring Sanjeev Dutta, Executive Director of Commodities, DMCC. He explores the underlying intricacies required in reducing the strain on trade finance – AI assisted supply chain management, utilizing the world class logistical infrastructure of central hubs such as Dubai and more in this exclusive video interview by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Learn how Dubai’s strategic location can enable reduced carbon -intensive trade in our upcoming Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference in Dubai, UAE on 22-23 May, 2023. KNOW MORE

Reducing scope 1 and scope 2 emissions from oil and gas activities is the most cost-effective way to reduce emissions by 2030 compared to any other source in the global economy, the International Energy Agency said in a May 3 report. The IEA estimates that 15% of energy-related emissions, or 5.1 billion mt of CO2e, stem from upstream and midstream oil and gas activities – from extracting the fuels out the ground to delivering them to end users. But that 15% is also the lowest hanging fruit for reductions. "These emissions can and should drop by more than half by 2030, and it's one of the cheapest ways of cleaning up the energy system," IEA Energy Analyst Peter Zeniewski said in a tweet announcing the new research. The upfront cost for reducing those emissions by half by 2030 is $600 billion, which, as the IEA described, amounts to just 15% of the profits oil and gas producers generated during the 2022 energy crisis. In February, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that the industry's 2022 income jumped to $4 trillion – a 166% rise over its annual $1.5 trillion average. While a number of these oil and gas companies have announced commitments to reduce their scope 1 and 2 emissions, only a fraction of those commitments matches the pace of decline needed to reach net-zero by 2050, the IEA said. And many of those commitments rely heavily on the use of carbon offsets. "Forward leaning companies need to recognize the need to move faster than the global average reduction in emissions and build a broader coalition of companies willing to play their part," the May 3 report said. Five key levers The IEA identified the five most cost-effective methods for reducing the industry's scope 1 and 2 emissions. The leading method is cutting methane emissions from oil and gas operations, which could reduce emissions by 1.2 billion mt of CO2e. According to Zeniewski, that reduction amounts to more CO2e than those associated with the aviation industry. In the IEA's scenario, one third of methane emissions reductions is attributable to oil and gas demand declines. The remaining two thirds stem from widespread efforts across the supply chain, in which all producers would "have an emissions intensity similar to the world's best operators today." The price of a Methane Performance Certificate was assessed at $0.014/MPC, or $2.307/mtc, on May 3, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The second most important measure is an overall elimination of non-emergency flaring, a practice that sent about 500 mt of CO2e into the atmosphere in 2022. The IEA suggests bringing the excess gas to consumers via new or existing pipeline networks, converting it into compressed or liquified natural gas, or reinjecting it into reservoirs to increase pressure. The third most important measure would be to electrify upstream operations, or using electricity to power drilling rigs, pumps, compressors and other equipment in the oil fields rather than diesel fuel or natural gas. Globally, these upstream operations resulted in more than 700 million mt of CO2 emissions in 2022. By taking advantage of on-site renewable resources or hooking operations up to the grid, electrification can halve CO2 emissions from the upstream sector by 2030. These three methods – electrification, reducing methane, and eliminating flaring – all have the potential to create new revenue streams to recoup upfront costs. For instance, while eliminating flaring would cost the industry $70 billion today, it could also generate $91 billion in revenue by 2030. "For facilities implementing these measures, the average cost of producing oil and gas would increase by les than $2 per barrel of oil equivalent," the IEA said. Hydrogen, carbon capture The final two methods involve increasing deployment of carbon capture technologies across oil and gas processes and expanding the use of low carbon hydrogen in refineries. "Scaling up CCUS and expanding the use of low-emissions hydrogen play complementary roles but have significant potential for positive spillover into other aspects of energy transitions, by accelerating deployment and technology learning for these technologies," the report said. At a cost of $110 billion, CCUS deployment could account for a reduction of 188 million mt CO2e by 2030. Hydrogen could account for a reduction of 66 million mt CO2e by 2030 at a cost of $83 billion. The development of both technologies is being led by the oil and gas industry. While 90% of all carbon capture and storage capacity is operated by oil and gas companies four of the five largest green hydrogen plants under construction are also being developed by the industry.

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With the recent indictment of former President Donald Trump, and with the prospect of more to come, the political waters of the country appear to be at their best muddied, at least for the Republican camp that has been a key backer of the oil and gas industry for decades. S&P Global Commodity Insights senior journalist John Siciliano spoke with Dan Eberhart , the CEO of Canary, the fifth largest installer of wellheads in the US, about how the 2024 presidential race is shaping up. On the podcast, Eberhart also delves into his concerns about challenges at the local level as more states are upping restrictions on hydraulic fracturing, which could make it harder to operate in parts of the country where Canary has seen the most success. He also addresses the future of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and provides his insights on the Environmental Protection Agency’s recently released clean car rules. Stick around after the interview for Jeff Mower with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Related content: US House passes bill to speed energy permitting, teeing off Senate negotiations 'Strongest-ever' emissions rules could boost EVs to two-thirds of new US car sales US Energy Secretary Granholm eyes start to SPR refill in second half of the year (premium content) No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

The issues impacting US power markets seem to be widespread and far-reaching lately. Since the Inflation Reduction Act was passed in August, it’s really taken over discussions at energy conferences due to its far-reaching impacts. But US power markets are also facing reliability concerns from extreme weather events, transmission permitting and the interconnection queue backlog, and massive growth in battery storage capacity. S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Kassia Micek, Mark Watson, Morris Greenberg, and Sam Huntington discuss the biggest topics impacting US power markets right now and what progress has been made regarding change. Related price assessments: Lithium Carbonate CIF North Asia ( BATLC04 ) ERCOT North Hub day-ahead on-peak ( IERNM00 ) Powder River Basin 8,800 OTC ( CTAOM01 ) CAISO SP15 Gen Hub solar capture price index ( ACPID00 ) More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

For access to all regions of the US Power Tracker series, subscribe to Platts Dimensions Pro . PJM Interconnection wholesale power prices were mixed in March and down sharply from the same month a year ago while spot natural gas prices dropped around 37% on month and 50% on year, and power demand declined on month as temperatures rose heading into spring. On-peak power prices at PJM Western Hub are projected to average around $47.60/MWh in 2023, down from $56/MWh in January's outlook, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights power market analysts. "The natural gas price curve for 2023 has been revised downward as the market now appears likely to be well-supplied throughout the year," the analysts said in their latest North American Electricity Short-term Outlook. "As a result, the PJM Western Hub price curve has shifted down by roughly 10% for 2023, relative to our previous short-term outlook," the analysts said. Forward power, gas prices PJM West Hub on-peak forward power prices for April averaged $35.99/MWh in March trading, which was about 36% below the $56.56/MWh average price from a year ago, according to Platts M2MS data. The April package was down 4.83% on the month. Forward power at the hub for May averaged $38.70/MWh, down about 35% on the year and down around 4% on the month, and forward prices for June averaged $44.32/MWh, down about 27% on the year and down almost 1% on the month. AEP-Dayton Hub on-peak forward power prices for April averaged $32.42/MWh during March trading, down around 35% on the year and 3% on the month. Forward power prices for May averaged $38.90/MWh, down about 34% on the year and 4% on the month, and forward power for June averaged $44.78/MWh, down roughly 26% on the year and flat on the month. Northern Illinois Hub on-peak power prices for April averaged $29.70/MWh in March trading, a decrease of about 37% on the year and around 6% on the month. Forward power prices at the hub for May averaged $32.30/MWh, a roughly 26% decline on the year and flat on the month. Platts Transco Zone 6 Non-New York forward gas prices averaged $2.11/MMBtu in March trading, down about 50% on the year and down around 4% on the month. Forward gas prices for May averaged $2.14/MMBtu, which was also a decline of about 50% on the year and 4% on the month, and forward gas prices for June averaged $2.37/MMBtu, a roughly 46% decline on year and down about 3% on the month. Power generation fuel mix Coal-fired power accounted for 15.1% of PJM's March fuel mix, up from 14.4% in February and down from 18.4% in March 2022, when gas prices were significantly higher, according to ISO data. Gas-fired power accounted for 42.8% of the March generation mix, essentially unchanged from 42.7% in February, but up from 38.3% in March 2022. Nuclear power supplied 32.5% of PJM's generation mix in March, down from 33.7% in February and 33.6% in March 2022. Hydropower accounted for 2% of the fuel mix in March, up from 1.8% in February and down from 2.5% in March 2022. Wind power accounted for 5.4% of the fuel mix in March, relatively unchanged from 5.5% in February and up slightly from 5.2% in March 2022. Spot power, gas price dynamics "On-peak power prices at the PJM Western Hub continued their tumble in March owing to lower natural gas prices and weaker electricity demand," the S&P Global analysts said. PJM Western Hub on-peak day-ahead power prices averaged $30.43/MWh in March, down nearly 37% on the year and down about 11% on the month, according to ISO data. On-peak real-time prices at the hub averaged $28.84/MWh, a decrease of 37% on the year and an increase of around 9% on the month. Northern Illinois Hub on-peak day-ahead power prices averaged 24.88/MWh in March, which was down about 39% on the year and down roughly 7% on the month. AEP-Dayton Hub on-peak day-ahead power prices averaged $30.10/MWh in March, down about 36% on the year and up around 2% on the month. PJM East Hub on-peak day-ahead power prices averaged $25.48/MWh in March, a decline of about 41% on the year and down almost 24% on the month. Texas Eastern gas prices averaged $2.23/MWh in March, down about 50% on the year and down around 37% on the month, according to Platts price assessments. PJM power demand declined 2.9% on month in March with peakload averaging 95,583 MW compared with an average of 98,409 MW in February, according to ISO data. Average peakload climbed 1% on the year. Power demand softened with higher temperatures, which were above average in March. The average March temperature across the PJM footprint was 43.8 degrees Fahrenheit compared with a historical average of 43.2 F, according to CustomWeather data. The higher temperatures decreased the average heating degree days to 20.7 in March from 23.0 in February.

In a time of geopolitical strife, economic uncertainty, and energy transition, nuclear power is edging more and more into the spotlight. Countries are looking to decarbonize, boost their energy security and adjust to shifting trade flows, with nuclear power seen by some as a way to advance on all these fronts. Policymakers are dangling attractive incentives in many countries for the energy source. In the first episode of this special two-part series, S&P Global nuclear news and analytics experts Bill Freebairn , Morris Greenberg , Dr. Jone-Lin Wang , and Mason Lester discuss the global state of nuclear infrastructure and markets in 2023 and beyond. Tune in next week for part two of the discussion, focusing on future outlooks. Register for the Platts Global Power Markets Conference here No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

In this week’s Market Movers Americas, presented by Katharine de Senne: • Pipeline maintenance to weigh on Permian Basin gas prices • Seasonal maintenance may limit upside to LNG feedgas demand • Western power operators' imbalance markets add members • Steel scrap price in focus for buy week

22-23 May, 2023 | Dubai, UAE S&P Global Commodity Insights brings you the 30th Annual Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference 2023. The longest running gathering for oil and gas, MPGC 2023 will deliver a power-packed programme encompassing Keynote and Ministerial addresses. KNOW MORE HERE REGISTER HERE

Algorithmic trading is increasingly a mainstay of European electricity and natural gas trade as major players seek to stay on top of fast-moving, volatile markets. So-called algos, which make hundreds if not thousands of trades a day, are widely used to balance renewable energy portfolios and bring more liquidity to the market. But traders have blamed the automated process for exacerbating volatility during last year's energy crisis, when electricity and gas prices exploded due to tight supplies and regulatory uncertainty. In this episode S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Kira Savcenko shares fragments of her conversation about this phenomenon with Jürgen Mayerhofer, CEO of algorithmic trader Enspired, and discusses further with Henry Edwardes-Evans, managing editor of S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Power in Europe newsletter. Related price assessments: UK Day-ahead Baseload Power price: AADET00 UK Day-ahead Peakload Power price: AADFC00 UK Block 5 Power price: GTB5G00 More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

China's National People's Congress has set the stage for the country's post-pandemic economic recovery and long-term roadmap under new leadership. On March 5, retiring Prime Minister Li Keqiang set a conservative 5% GDP growth target for 2023, which is higher than the 3% achieved in 2022, and will help support commodities demand. But it also signals an uphill task for Beijing in sustaining modest growth amid broader economic restructuring, financial risks from the property sector and global uncertainties. Click here to see the full-size infographic

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is set to have far-reaching impacts on world trade and the wider energy transition. Phasing in from 2026, CBAM will levy a carbon tax on imports of selected energy intensive materials and products into the EU, removing the gap between the EU’s ETS carbon price and the export country of origin’s carbon price. Analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights shows Canada, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey will be most exposed to the mechanism, with iron and steel by far the biggest sector targeted. Click to see the full-size infographic Related Insight Blog entry: CBAM, ETS reform to impact fertilizer trade Related podcast: How will the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism affect global trade and carbon pricing? More listening options:

The absence of Freeport LNG exports from June 2022 to February 2023 was a major event in the history of US natural gas exports that demonstrated the growing connection between US supply and global gas markets. Click here for the full-sized infographic Related content: Freeport LNG outage showed growing connection of US supply, global gas market

The European Union’s implementation of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to support its industry’s efforts to decarbonize and prevent carbon leakage is likely to have far-reaching effects on global trade and the wider energy transition. S&P Global Commodity Insights' experts Eklavya Gupte, Coralie Laurencin, Michael Evans and Paula VanLaningham take a deep dive on CBAM, examining its potential impact on a range of industries, political alliances and its influence on carbon pricing and regulation. NOTE: CBAM CO2 emissions data referenced in this podcast relate to emissions modelling totals between 2026-2040. Click here to access prices, news and analytics relating to carbon markets on Platts Dimensions Pro More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

The Freeport LNG terminal in Texas started exporting LNG cargoes in mid-February for the first time since a fire and explosion in June 2022 forced a shutdown of the facility, marking a milestone in the history of US LNG. In the global LNG market, the Freeport outage initially exacerbated supply shortages that sent sky-high spot prices even higher. In the US, the shutdown took the lid off a really hot domestic gas market, as a key source of domestic demand went offline. But global LNG and US gas market dynamics have changed dramatically in the eight months since Freeport went offline. In this episode, S&P Global Commodity Insights LNG experts Harry Weber and Corey Paul discuss these issues as Freeport returns, as well as LNG market fundamentals more broadly in the Atlantic. Also listen: Have LNG and gas markets returned to normality in 2023? Register for CERAWeek by S&P Global here More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).