Gastech 2023 Strategic Report - Asia's imperative: More energy less emissions

Voluntary carbon markets are facing a critical moment in their short history. Questions about the integrity and effectiveness of many carbon projects have led to a sharp fall in prices and liquidity. However, a series of quality and transparency initiatives are being adopted to restore confidence in offsets. S&P Global Commodity Insights' experts Eklavya Gupte, Dana Agrotti and Silvia Favasuli discuss the road to recovery for the VCM as it seeks to rebuild credibility and trust. Related price assessments: Platts Household Devices Current Year CNHDD00 Platts Nature-based Avoidance Current Year ANBAA00 Platts Natural Carbon Capture Current Year ANCCA00 And you can watch our latest videos explaining what determines the price of a carbon credit and the pricing structure in the VCM . More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

Draft reduction at the Neopanamax locks and limitations on daily transits at the Panamax lock system have resulted in longer wait times to transit the Panama Canal. Shipowners have been raising freight costs to seek reimbursement for higher transit and demurrage fees; lightering ships by offloading cargo before crossing; or rerouting ships via alternative but longer routes. S&P Global Commodity Insights' Barbara Troner , Americas freight senior managing editor, discusses these impacts with Americas tankers reporter Catherine Rogers , containers reporter Laura Robb , and dry bulk reporter Nikolaos Aidinis Antonopoulos . The group discusses how shipping markets have been impacted by the El Niño-induced water conservation measures responding to the extended dry season in the Panama Canal watershed, and what remedial steps shipowners can take to navigate the logistical bottleneck potentially continuing well into 2024. Prices in this episode: PCR0500 – North Asia-EC North America $/FEU freight (containers) GRNOQ00 - DBF Grain New Orleans Louisiana US Gulf Coast-Qingdao China 66kt $/mt Panamax (dry bulk) GRNOJ00 - DBF Grain New Orleans Louisiana US Gulf Coast-Kashima Japan 50kt $/mt Supramax (dry bulk) TCAUX00 – Medium Range 38kt USGC-Chile Lumpsum freight (tankers) Subscribe to Platts Dimensions Pro More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

Europe is now increasingly dependent on LNG to offset lost Russian pipeline flows and as a result is more exposed to the global LNG market, and with it competition with Asia and elsewhere for cargoes and potential LNG price volatility. Learn more at Asia Hydrogen & LNG Markets Conference 2023 | October 24-25, 2023 | Singapore Conferences LIVE

In this episode of Energy Evolution, guest Tom Schneberger, CEO of USA Rare Earth, joins us to talk about rare earths supply chains and the production of rare earth magnets key to energy transition technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines. Energy Evolution co-hosts Dan Testa and Taylor Kuykendall are veteran journalists with broad expertise covering the energy and mining sectors. In addition, Camellia Moors and Camilla Naschert, reporters who write about mining and power issues, are correspondents for Energy Evolution and regularly contribute to the show. Subscribe to Energy Evolution on your favorite platform to catch our latest episodes! More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

Over the past 30 years Brazil’s emergence as a global powerhouse in agricultural commodities has been astonishing. Green coffee production has more than doubled since 1990 and sugar cane production has grown about fivefold during the same time. Brazil has gone from barely an afterthought in global soybean production, producing less than 16 million tons, to the world’s largest producer, with nearly 155 million metric tons. This has come from ever-increasing trend yields and a substantial expansion of area under production. The story for corn production is similar. In the 1990/91 crop year Brazilian corn production amounted to 24 million metric tons; today, Brazil will produce more than 130 million metric tons, nearly doubling corn area during this period. Brazil will overtake the US as the world’s largest exporter of corn this year. However, this year is not a result of a one-off supply shock in the US. Large Brazilian production is undercutting US corn in world markets. Brazil overtook the US as the world export leader in soybean ten years ago and has never looked back; we expect the same to happen with corn. Brazil’s competitiveness is mostly related to its vast land availability and low cost of production. The large-scale farming and fast adoption of new technologies allowed it to increase planted area and yields simultaneously. Grain transportation costs in Brazil have been historically much higher than in the United States or Argentina but it has been improving infrastructure in transportation and ports which helped to narrow that difference. All of the above is focused on the supply side. However, Brazil’s rise to prominence in the global oilseed and grain markets also came from filling expanding markets, particularly China’s growing demand. During the last 20 years, soybean exports from Brazil were largely supported by China imports. Strong economic growth, favorable demographics, and fast urbanization helped boost China’s growth and imports of raw commodities. In the animal-feeding sector, the compound annual growth rate of Chinese soybean imports was 7.9% in those 20 years. From 1990-2020, China’s consumption of animal protein grew nearly fivefold. It accounts for roughly half the world’s hogs and nearly 70% of aquaculture production. However, while China’s economy will continue to grow, the rate is likely to be about half of the 10% growth in 1990-2013. Moreover, China’s population shrunk for the first time in 60 years this year, due to declining birth rates. It is hard to imagine these factors will not matter when it comes to food consumption and animal feedstuffs demand. Most of the same supply-side factors that allowed Brazil to gain market share in ag commodity exports during the last three decades are likely to remain; but slower Chinese import growth is expected to result in substantial changes in the global ag trade. While China’s demand growth for raw ag commodities slows, domestic processing will play a significant role during the coming years in Brazil to accommodate the growing supply. The Investment in domestic processing is expected to ramp up given the lower cost of soybeans and corn supplies, and profitable margins. Biofuel demand is likely to continue to expand in Brazil and globally. In fact, the expansion of the renewable diesel industry in the US is exceeding the availability of feedstocks for the first time, and the US is turning a net short soybean oil importer. Brazil is well positioned to address the tight supply and global vegetable oil trade re-allocations to gain market share in the food and fuel segments. This will facilitate increased exports of soy oil and biofuels. At the same time, the meal produced will be a tailwind for the country’s animal feeding sector and is likely to increase exports of meal. This trend will continue with Brazil eventually taking the lead in global soybean products exports. Concurrently, the door is open to pursue leadership in animal protein and biofuels exports. In conclusion the short term economics of soybean and corn production will be challenged by the slowdown in Chinese demand. However, Brazil has significant potential to continue to expand its crop production. Brazil still has more than 100 million acres of pastureland available to expand agricultural production. Production increases provide a huge competitive advantage in any environment, especially if margins are squeezed - good things happen to the low-cost producer. Brazil is currently the food supplier to the world, and if future demand drivers shift from China to biofuels, Brazil is well positioned to morph into the supplier to the world of biofuels. Given soy crushing for biofuels has a symbiotic relationship with animal feeding, this should increase Brazil’s competitiveness in global animal proteins. Get access to the full report here . To learn more about our products, please click here: Food and Agricultural Commodities Economics

Qatar has picked partners for its expansion of LNG production capacity but picking the buyers has taken more time. Just 11.8 million mt/year of supply from the two expansion projects has been contracted with international companies out of the total 48 million mt/year of new supply starting in 2026. Read more : FEATURE: Qatar sees slow start to sale of new LNG supply Click here to see full-size image

Renewable Natural Gas – also known as RNG or biomethane — has gained attention in recent years as a lower-carbon replacement for conventional fossil natural gas. Rising demand for RNG has helped push prices for the associated environmental attributes up to anywhere from five to forty times the price of physical natural gas. As the market has grown, so has the need for transparent pricing. In response, S&P Global Commodity Insights launched first-of-kind pricing for landfill gas RNG for the California and outside-of-California markets in May. What supports those premiums for RNG and how does S&P Global see demand for this low-carbon gas alternative developing in the future? Kelsey Hallahan , team lead for low carbon commodities, discusses with low carbon pricing analyst Hope Raymond , senior biofuels analyst Jamie Dorner , and senior director for the S&P Global Hydrogen and Renewable Gas Forum Alex Klaessig . Inflation Reduction Act: A Pragmatist's Guide (special report) Prices in this episode: North America Renewable Natural Gas Premium (California) ( AEWAA00 ) EU Biomass Guarantees of Origin (GO) Current Yr Eur/MWh ( EBGY200 ) Low Carbon Fuel Standard Carbon Credits Front Quarter ( AAXYA00 ) No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia are showing signs of a rebound in August after declines in July, but those gains are not likely to last as refineries wait for the next announcement on import quotas. Saudi Arabia's crude shipment to China are averaging 1.9 million b/d in August, up from 1.3 million b/d a month earlier, while Russia inflows are at 1.38 million b/d, up on month from 1.36 million b/d, according to Kpler shipping data. Imports from Saudi Arabia were at a 12-month low of 1.33 million b/d in July, while Russian shipments dropped to 1.91 million b/d in the month, the lowest since April, China General Administration of Customs data showed. Although Saudi Arabia's official selling prices for August loading were high, Middle East crudes remained competitive with the addition of shipping freight, according to a source within Unipec. Both state-run and private Chinese refineries are taking in more barrels, the source said. Refinery maintenance July customs data could have been understated by as much as 1 million b/d on paperwork and accounting delays, and could be corrected upward for August data, said Iman Nasseri, Middle East managing editor at Facts Global Energy in Dubai. "Some Chinese refiners have been limited by refinery maintenance and quota constraints, and some of the capacities which were on maintenance are coming back this month, hence higher runs in August are expected," Nasseri said. "Still, refiners are waiting for the next announcement on quotas." Some of China's small refineries have been buying fuel oil as an alternative to crude as China cracked down on imports of rebranded crude under the name of "diluted bitumen," but the trade has largely resumed since June, he said. "After nominating less term volumes from Saudi Arabia due to higher OSPs in the past two months, Chinese refiners, including NOCs such as CNPC and Sinopec and mega independents such as Hengli and Rongsheng, have resumed their usual term volumes for September loading," he said. "But again, as the new quota announcement is delayed, we expect Chinese importers to be less active in the spot market yet." OPEC+ cuts Indications of higher Saudi Arabian volumes come amid a record cut in the country's crude production in line with the ongoing OPEC+ production controls. In April, Saudi Arabia said it would slash 500,000 b/d of its crude production in concert with several OPEC+ allies, which are contributing an additional 1.2 million b/d of their own cuts, in a bid to tighten the market and reverse a slump in oil prices. The kingdom then said it planned to make a unilateral 1 million b/d cut for July and August, bringing production down to a two-year low of 9 million b/d. Saudi Arabia dropped its production to 9.05 million b/d in July, the lowest level since June 2021, according to the latest Platts survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The decline was not as steep as its pledged cut, with production falling 940,000 b/d on June volumes. "Saudi energy diplomacy has always been versatile and adaptive during market shifts," said Abdulaziz al-Moqbel, an independent energy consultant based in Al-Khobar. "One could easily notice that Chinese oil demand is still strong and increasing regardless of many macroeconomic indicators," he said. "The Saudi exports have relied on three foundations, commitment, priority and competitiveness. These three foundations had made the Saudi oil exports able to endure various scenarios of market conditions."

India has an ambitious target to double the steel production capacity by 2030 from current levels. While the steel industry gears up for this expansion, concerns of higher carbon emissions loom large amid India lacking a distinct roadmap for decarbonization and its carbon neutrality target set as far ahead as 2070. At the same time, Europe is gearing up to implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is expected to affect the sources and prices of steel imports. How is India going to be impacted by CBAM and how is India faring in its decarbonization journey? S&P Global Commodity Insights Senior Editor covering the Asia ferrous metals market, Rituparna Nath spoke with the Managing Editor for Asia Metals News Rohan Somwanshi, Managing Editor of the Global Compliance Carbon markets, Agamoni Ghosh and Senior Metals Analyst Paul Bartholomew to discuss these questions. Related content: How is Europe’s steel industry rising to the challenge of energy transition We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

US short- and long-term power demand forecasting is becoming increasingly challenging as the power generation fuel mix shifts more toward weather-dependent renewables and energy storage resources, and extreme weather becomes more common, causing power grid operators to adopt new load forecasting approaches. The increase in renewable energy penetration is making day-ahead load forecasting more dependent on accurate weather forecasting, with extreme weather creating additional challenges. For example, temperatures across PJM Interconnection territory plummeted beginning on Dec. 23, 2022, and the cold lasted into the morning of Dec. 25, with record lows in some areas as well as record drops in some regions. PJM said it was the most drastic temperature drop in a decade, and power demand during the Christmas weekend was an "extreme outlier" in magnitude and timing. The weather event put extreme stress on the power grid, and the rapid power demand increase resulted in extremely elevated power prices. Zonal power prices reached as high as around $4,300/MWh Dec. 24, according to PJM. The highest December PJM West Hub daily average real-time on-peak price of $1,111.90/MWh was reached Dec. 23, according to PJM data. Regarding long-term planning, power system operators have traditionally relied on historical weather patterns to help create power demand forecasts, but with weather becoming more erratic because of climate change, historic weather dynamics are becoming less reliable indicators of future conditions. Short-term adjustments Asked how increased weather-dependent renewables penetration is impacting load forecasting day-ahead, an ISO New England spokesperson said in a recent email that the rise in weather dependent renewable penetration, particularly behind the meter solar production, has "introduced a significant level of variability to electricity demand, particularly during daylight hours." This increased variability presents a challenge for day-ahead and short-term load forecasting and to address this, ISO New England has recently implemented two new load forecasting projects within the last 10 months, the grid operator said. Artificial Intelligence is also playing a role in short-term power demand forecasting. In the short-term forecast process, a variety of load forecast models and "model blending algorithms" are employed to inform the human forecasters in their decision-making to produce a final forecast, the spokesperson said, adding that "the models and tools we use are machine learning and AI-based algorithms," and these encompass "neural network models and gradient boosting models that employ tree-based learning algorithms." The New York Independent System Operator is also working to address these short-term load forecasting challenges. "In terms of the short-term, day ahead and, real time, the NYISO has for the last several years, developed essentially working with third-party contractors, a pretty robust framework for collecting actual and forecasted output for both wind and solar resources," Tim Duffy, NYISO's manager of demand forecasting and analysis, said in a recent phone interview. The grid operator is working with contractors that facilitate the data gathering and forecasting process, and then NYISO integrates that into its day-ahead as well as real-time forecasting process, Duffy said. Extreme weather can also be a challenge for NYISO weather forecasters when storms move through, and the grid operator relies on various services for that data. Duffy said NYISO uses and is looking to expand the use of "probabilistic forecasting." A deterministic forecast might predict no clouds tomorrow at 3 pm, while a probabilistic forecast provides a more detailed prediction, like there is a 30% chance of cloud cover tomorrow at 3 pm, and that additional level of detail on the forecast uncertainty enables grid operators to better manage costs and risks when dispatching generation resources, according to the US Department of Energy. Regarding the use of AI, Duffy said NYISO is using neural nets as part of its day-ahead load forecasting, whether that is considered to be AI or machine learning. Long-term challenges Given the evolving nature of weather patterns due to climate change, "we are actively investigating methods to incorporate the anticipated impacts of climate change into our supporting data and overall forecasting methodology," the ISO-NE spokesperson said, adding that "we anticipate implementing the selected chosen solution within the next couple of years." The ISO is also collaborating with the Electric Power Research Institute, an independent nonprofit energy research and development organization, to conduct a probabilistic energy security study to assess energy security risks. The major challenges in long-term load forecasting center on understanding and modeling emerging technologies such as distributed energy resources like solar PV and batteries as well as technologies involved in electrifying and decarbonizing the heating and transportation sectors, the ISO-NE spokesperson said. The NYISO's Duffy highlighted that understanding the timing of the energy transition is critical. "We can understand what the end state will be, whether that's 2030, 2040, 2050, 100% electric, but it's really the path to get there and the timing of the increased penetration of electric vehicles and building electrification," he said. "That really, in my mind, is the biggest challenge."

The US Department of Agriculture has revised the corn yield estimate for marketing year 2023-24 (September-August) to 175.1 bushels/acre from 177.5 bu/acre, according to the Aug. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. US corn production for MY 2023-24 is forecast 209 million bu lower to 15.111 billion bu, while corn beginning corn stocks are 55 million bu higher, the USDA said in its latest report. The yield revision comes following a prior revision in the June-July forecasts for the first time since 2012. This is largely because of a dry start to crop development in much of the US Corn Belt in June, which, despite showers in July, has trimmed the top-end yield potential, according to analysts. In a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights, producers reported better yields than in 2022, despite crop conditions being at five-year lows. The USDA has made no change to import projections, which stand at 25 million bushels, while exports are lowered by 50 million bu to 2.05 billion bu. In all, the USDA has reduced the 2023-24 US corn ending stocks estimate by 60 million bu to 2.202 billion bu. This is 745 million bu above year-on-year estimates. The domestic total fell to 12.340 billion bu, which is still above last year's 12.060 billion bu. The total supply estimates for August have fallen to 16.592 billion bu compared with 16.747 billion bu in July, still above the 15.142 billion bu in the previous year. The USDA has increased the average farm price by 10 cents to $4.90/bu, which is still lower than $6.60/bu in the 2022-23 estimates. Beyond the US The latest WASDE report estimates Brazil's production for MY 2023-24 at 129 million mt, unchanged on the month. However, the USDA increased Brazil's current corn crop by 2 million mt to 135 million mt, owing to the positive yield farmers reported as they harvest the second corn crop. While imports for Brazil 2023-24 corn are estimated at 1.20 million mt, exports are at 55 million mt. The beginning stock projections for August are increased to 8.97 million mt from 7.97 million mt in July. Similarly, for Argentina, overall production for MY 2023-24 was estimated at 54 million mt, significantly above the previous year's 34 million mt. Imports are projected at 0.01 million mt, while exports are at 40.50 million mt, compared with the 22 million mt in 2022-23 estimates. "Corn production for Ukraine is higher (27.50 million mt in August against 25 million mt in July), with increases to both area and yield as timely rainfall and a lack of extreme heat during July boost yield expectations," the USDA said. "Ukraine corn exports are unchanged with the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative," the USDA noted in its latest WASDE report. The ending stocks, on the other hand, surged 180% to 3.89 million mt. China's 2023-24 corn production is reduced by 3 million mt to 277 million mt, as excessive wetness in key producing provinces in Northeast China and on the North China Plain reduces yield prospects. The production nears 2022-23 estimates of 277.20 million mt, after posting an increase from June to July. In the USDA report, China's import projections are pegged at 23 million mt, unchanged on the month, but 5 million mt higher than the previous year. With key corn-producing provinces witnessing excessive water, crop damage, and the effects of recurring typhoons, an increase in Chinese corn imports is expected, especially amid the fall of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Before skyrocketing gas prices encouraged Norwegian supply and LNG imports, Russia had been the largest single source of gas supply for Europe. However, it was Russia's invasion of Ukraine —followed by Gazprom reducing and then halting deliveries to Germany via Nord Stream— that signaled a tipping point in Europe's gas supply . The following interactive chart illustrates the fast-changing paradigm of European gas imports. Latest update: July 14th 2023.

Singapore | Oct 25 - 26 2023 As the gas market landscape shifts due to the spotlight on net-zero goals and sustainability, the relationship between Hydrogen & LNG becomes highly symbiotic. Companies need to pivot to a carbon-neutral world successfully, and business operations must realize that process innovation and technology will be the impetus for delivering valuable change. KNOW MORE

The LNG market has become more settled after the unprecedented price volatility from 2022, but there is still competition between Asia and Europe for cargoes given the short-term lack of new supply set to come online. What can we expect for LNG markets in the coming months? Learn more at the Asia Hydrogen & LNG Markets conference

The LNG market has become more settled after the unprecedented price volatility from 2022, but there is still competition between Asia and Europe for cargoes given the short-term lack of new supply set to come online. What can we expect for LNG markets in the coming months. Learn more at Global Carbon Markets Conference | Paris | November 6-8