Chemical Trends H2 2023: Weak global economic outlook puts pressure on chemical markets

Bionaphtha, a co-product in biodiesel or sustainable aviation fuel production, is set to see a growing market in Europe and Asia, spurred by bioplastics demand and fuel blending mandates. Similar to biofuels, bionaphtha is derived from bio-based feedstock instead of crude oil. As more petrochemical players gear up to their long-term net-zero targets, bio-attributed polymers, with bionaphtha as one feedstock option, could bring to the table a viable roadmap in achieving decarbonization all along the value chain. Bionaphtha is not made as a standalone product at any single plant, nor are there plans to build plants with the sole aim of producing bionaphtha. In fact, bionaphtha is a side product of second-generation hydrotreated vegetable oil biofuel plants. The technology uses hydrogen as a feedstock to refine waste oil streams such as used cooking oil or animal fats. Such plants often produce biodiesel or sustainable aviation fuel as the main product or products. Global biorefinery capacity has been expanding in recent years and is estimated to grow from 19 million mt/year as of 2023 to upward of about 50 million mt/year by 2030 in output including renewable diesel, jet fuels, bionaphtha and bioLPG, based on the delivery of committed projects, according to research by the Biofuels Research and Analytics team at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Bioplastics as a major application Bionaphtha is currently used for two major downstream applications -- fuel blending and bioplastics production -- in major markets such as Europe. Although fuel blending is considered the sector with a bigger market share in Europe, market participants generally expect bioplastics demand to dominate. Bionaphtha could be used as a drop-in feedstock in naphtha crackers, producing olefins and aromatics for bioplastics production. Bioplastics produced this way are commonly specified as bio-attributed polymers in the market, distinguishing them from other bio-based polymers using plant fiber, corn starch or sugar as feedstocks. The mass-balancing approach A key concept in sustainable supply chains is the concept of Chain of Custody. CoC is used to record and validate a sustainable product's origin, handling and processes. A key approach is "mass balance". The mass balance approach encapsulates the following idea: renewable material is mixed with fossil material in current infrastructure to produce chemicals with partial renewable content, saving on the need to build new infrastructure and helping to lower barriers of entry for interested parties. This helps to lower otherwise prohibitive logistics costs if renewable content is managed separately physically. Renewable content is tracked through a bookkeeping approach and audited by third parties such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification, allowing for traceability of the renewable product along the entire supply chain. Chemical recycling versus bioplastics In recent years, the global chemical industry has been investing in the value chain of bioplastics and chemically recycled polymers through a pyrolysis naphtha route, because both present a solution to complement the space that cannot be filled by mechanical recycling of used plastics. The two production streams of plastics are sometimes considered in tandem as viable alternatives to fossil-based counterparts. Sources said the two naphtha substitutes carry different ambitions. Whereas chemical recycling would help close the loop of plastic production and recycle hard-to-recycle plastic waste back to virgin-like feedstocks via pyrolysis, bioplastics focus on reducing CO2 emissions. "Bioplastics has better carbon footprint than pyrolysis-based polymers, but the latter has the recycled tags," a sustainable polymer producer source said. Marketing appeal and niche industry needs European market sources suggest that bio-based plastics usually carry a decent premium over conventional plastics. Nevertheless, consumer-oriented applications may still opt for bioplastics based on a sustainability angle. One example is the European toy sector, which is heard producing with bioplastics rather than recycled plastics because of legislative concerns about material safety for small children. In Asia, increased interest among brand-owner groups from South Korea and Japan such as cosmetic brands have generated some demand in the field. The future for bio-chemicals The bionaphtha market has seen some expansion in the past few years, helped by a demand pull and a supply push, despite some potential stagnation in 2023, with many petrochemical producers expecting negative margins. Nevertheless, major players are still seen to be investing along the bio-chemicals chain. Advocacy efforts can also be observed regarding carbon accounting for the petrochemical world, as well as efforts to better recognize bio-based plastics for their sustainability contribution. A version of this article appeared in the Sept. 11-18 edition of Chemical Week . S&P Global Commodity Insights will be at the 57th Annual Meeting of the EPCA on Sept. 25-28. Meet our subject matter experts at Incubator Pod Booth #3 or Park Suite 2 at the Hilton Vienna Park. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, launched bionaphtha assessments in Northwest Europe, effective Sept. 1, 2023. Learn more here .

Platts Ammonia Price Chart illustrates monthly averages of daily assessments for gray, blue and green ammonia across a range of geographies and delivery options. This month's feature: Global ammonia prices rise in August as supply tightens (Latest update 19th September, 2023)

Thomas Gangl, CEO of Borealis, explains how partnerships, innovation and a supportive regulatory framework can help boost plastics recycling. Conferences LIVE

David Ernsberger (S&P Global Commodity Insights) interviews Gary Ross, CEO/Founder, Black Gold Investors/PIRA Energy Group at APPEC 2023. Conferences LIVE

In an interview with Ian Young, executive editor of Chemical Week, EQUATE CEO Nasir Aldousari outlines how the company has improved resiliency through challenges such as COVID and tough marker conditions. The company takes a disciplined approach across all operations to maintain agility and commitments to all stakeholders across the cycle. Learn more at the World Petrochemical Conference 2024 | Houston | March 18-22 2024 Conferences LIVE

Over the past 30 years Brazil’s emergence as a global powerhouse in agricultural commodities has been astonishing. Green coffee production has more than doubled since 1990 and sugar cane production has grown about fivefold during the same time. Brazil has gone from barely an afterthought in global soybean production, producing less than 16 million tons, to the world’s largest producer, with nearly 155 million metric tons. This has come from ever-increasing trend yields and a substantial expansion of area under production. The story for corn production is similar. In the 1990/91 crop year Brazilian corn production amounted to 24 million metric tons; today, Brazil will produce more than 130 million metric tons, nearly doubling corn area during this period. Brazil will overtake the US as the world’s largest exporter of corn this year. However, this year is not a result of a one-off supply shock in the US. Large Brazilian production is undercutting US corn in world markets. Brazil overtook the US as the world export leader in soybean ten years ago and has never looked back; we expect the same to happen with corn. Brazil’s competitiveness is mostly related to its vast land availability and low cost of production. The large-scale farming and fast adoption of new technologies allowed it to increase planted area and yields simultaneously. Grain transportation costs in Brazil have been historically much higher than in the United States or Argentina but it has been improving infrastructure in transportation and ports which helped to narrow that difference. All of the above is focused on the supply side. However, Brazil’s rise to prominence in the global oilseed and grain markets also came from filling expanding markets, particularly China’s growing demand. During the last 20 years, soybean exports from Brazil were largely supported by China imports. Strong economic growth, favorable demographics, and fast urbanization helped boost China’s growth and imports of raw commodities. In the animal-feeding sector, the compound annual growth rate of Chinese soybean imports was 7.9% in those 20 years. From 1990-2020, China’s consumption of animal protein grew nearly fivefold. It accounts for roughly half the world’s hogs and nearly 70% of aquaculture production. However, while China’s economy will continue to grow, the rate is likely to be about half of the 10% growth in 1990-2013. Moreover, China’s population shrunk for the first time in 60 years this year, due to declining birth rates. It is hard to imagine these factors will not matter when it comes to food consumption and animal feedstuffs demand. Most of the same supply-side factors that allowed Brazil to gain market share in ag commodity exports during the last three decades are likely to remain; but slower Chinese import growth is expected to result in substantial changes in the global ag trade. While China’s demand growth for raw ag commodities slows, domestic processing will play a significant role during the coming years in Brazil to accommodate the growing supply. The Investment in domestic processing is expected to ramp up given the lower cost of soybeans and corn supplies, and profitable margins. Biofuel demand is likely to continue to expand in Brazil and globally. In fact, the expansion of the renewable diesel industry in the US is exceeding the availability of feedstocks for the first time, and the US is turning a net short soybean oil importer. Brazil is well positioned to address the tight supply and global vegetable oil trade re-allocations to gain market share in the food and fuel segments. This will facilitate increased exports of soy oil and biofuels. At the same time, the meal produced will be a tailwind for the country’s animal feeding sector and is likely to increase exports of meal. This trend will continue with Brazil eventually taking the lead in global soybean products exports. Concurrently, the door is open to pursue leadership in animal protein and biofuels exports. In conclusion the short term economics of soybean and corn production will be challenged by the slowdown in Chinese demand. However, Brazil has significant potential to continue to expand its crop production. Brazil still has more than 100 million acres of pastureland available to expand agricultural production. Production increases provide a huge competitive advantage in any environment, especially if margins are squeezed - good things happen to the low-cost producer. Brazil is currently the food supplier to the world, and if future demand drivers shift from China to biofuels, Brazil is well positioned to morph into the supplier to the world of biofuels. Given soy crushing for biofuels has a symbiotic relationship with animal feeding, this should increase Brazil’s competitiveness in global animal proteins. Get access to the full report here . To learn more about our products, please click here: Food and Agricultural Commodities Economics

In a generally difficult second quarter for chemical makers, earnings for paints and coatings firms were a bright spot, largely due to significant relief from raw material cost inflation. PPG Industries, Inc. and The Sherwin-Williams Company (SW) beat analyst expectations, and AkzoNobel NV upgraded its full-year guidance. Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd., Kansai Paint Co., Ltd. and Asian Paints Ltd. also reported solid results. Raw materials were a major tailwind for PPG and SW — one that is expected to continue in the second half. SW expects raw material costs to be down by a mid- to high single-digit percentage year over year, according to chairman and CEO John Morikis. “Compared to the guidance we laid out in January, full-year sales growth and raw material costs are trending better than we anticipated,” Morikis said. “With this first half outperformance, we expect considerable year-over-year operating margin expansion and earnings growth for the year.” SW has increased its earnings guidance for the year. The company now expects full-year 2023 net sales to be up by a low single-digit percentage from 2022. They were expected to be flat to down by a mid-single-digit percentage previously. SW also now expects full-year adjusted earnings to total $9.30-$9.70/share, compared with $7.95-$8.65/share previously and $8.73/share in 2022. AkzoNobel also upgraded its earnings outlook and now anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be between €1.40 billion and €1.55 billion. The company’s previously communicated guidance was €1.20 billion-€1.50 billion. It expects declining raw material costs to have a favorable impact on profitability for the rest of 2023. “We have seen raw material deflation in some of our businesses and we expect increasing raw material deflation in the second half of the year,” said Greg Poux-Guillaume, CEO of AkzoNobel, during a July 25 earnings call. However, some of the cost inflation seen since 2021 will stick. “What we're seeing today…[is] mid- to high single-digit and maybe in some cases low double-digit deflation on certain raw materials,” said Vincent Morales, senior vice president and CFO of PPG, during the company’s earnings call last month. “I would remind everybody, these raw materials went up 20%, 30%, 40%. So, when you do it on a multiyear stack, we're still much higher.” PPG is also drawing down its raw material inventories, which were built up during the surging demand and supply chain crises in 2021 and early 2022. “Our raw material inventories remain elevated, and we are executing various action plans to further reduce these inventory levels over the next several quarters as commodity supply availability has improved significantly this year,” PPG president and CEO Tim Knavish said. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. also expects to see margins improving as the year progresses. The company “expects mid- to high single-digit variable cost deflation for the second half of the year to mitigate higher operating expenses,” it said. Demand trends Meanwhile, demand is soft in some coatings end markets but has held up surprisingly well in others. Demand for architectural coatings has softened as interest rates have hit the construction market, but it appears to be stabilizing in much of the world. “In our architectural businesses, we expect demand conditions to be mixed by geography,” PPG’s Knavish said. “In Europe, we anticipate demand will stabilize at current levels, resulting in year-over-year sales volume being much closer to the prior year. In the US, we anticipate DIY [do-it-yourself] demand to remain at lower levels and pro-contractor residential repaint activity to begin to modestly decline sequentially with the backdrop of lower existing home sales.” Automotive OEM demand remains solid as vehicle builds continue to recover from the pandemic and semiconductor chip shortages. Axalta’s mobility coatings business saw a 13% year-over-year increase in volumes, with broad growth and especially strong gains in China and EMEA light vehicles, CEO Chris Villavarayan said. The picture is more mixed for industrial coatings, as weaker industrial activity generally is a drag. Protective and marine coatings were a bright spot for many firms, including Sherwin-Williams and AkzoNobel, but general industrial demand is weak. “Overall global industrial production is challenging, including in a number of industrial end-use markets that are already in recessionary tight demand conditions,” Knavish said.

The US Department of Agriculture has revised the corn yield estimate for marketing year 2023-24 (September-August) to 175.1 bushels/acre from 177.5 bu/acre, according to the Aug. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. US corn production for MY 2023-24 is forecast 209 million bu lower to 15.111 billion bu, while corn beginning corn stocks are 55 million bu higher, the USDA said in its latest report. The yield revision comes following a prior revision in the June-July forecasts for the first time since 2012. This is largely because of a dry start to crop development in much of the US Corn Belt in June, which, despite showers in July, has trimmed the top-end yield potential, according to analysts. In a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights, producers reported better yields than in 2022, despite crop conditions being at five-year lows. The USDA has made no change to import projections, which stand at 25 million bushels, while exports are lowered by 50 million bu to 2.05 billion bu. In all, the USDA has reduced the 2023-24 US corn ending stocks estimate by 60 million bu to 2.202 billion bu. This is 745 million bu above year-on-year estimates. The domestic total fell to 12.340 billion bu, which is still above last year's 12.060 billion bu. The total supply estimates for August have fallen to 16.592 billion bu compared with 16.747 billion bu in July, still above the 15.142 billion bu in the previous year. The USDA has increased the average farm price by 10 cents to $4.90/bu, which is still lower than $6.60/bu in the 2022-23 estimates. Beyond the US The latest WASDE report estimates Brazil's production for MY 2023-24 at 129 million mt, unchanged on the month. However, the USDA increased Brazil's current corn crop by 2 million mt to 135 million mt, owing to the positive yield farmers reported as they harvest the second corn crop. While imports for Brazil 2023-24 corn are estimated at 1.20 million mt, exports are at 55 million mt. The beginning stock projections for August are increased to 8.97 million mt from 7.97 million mt in July. Similarly, for Argentina, overall production for MY 2023-24 was estimated at 54 million mt, significantly above the previous year's 34 million mt. Imports are projected at 0.01 million mt, while exports are at 40.50 million mt, compared with the 22 million mt in 2022-23 estimates. "Corn production for Ukraine is higher (27.50 million mt in August against 25 million mt in July), with increases to both area and yield as timely rainfall and a lack of extreme heat during July boost yield expectations," the USDA said. "Ukraine corn exports are unchanged with the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative," the USDA noted in its latest WASDE report. The ending stocks, on the other hand, surged 180% to 3.89 million mt. China's 2023-24 corn production is reduced by 3 million mt to 277 million mt, as excessive wetness in key producing provinces in Northeast China and on the North China Plain reduces yield prospects. The production nears 2022-23 estimates of 277.20 million mt, after posting an increase from June to July. In the USDA report, China's import projections are pegged at 23 million mt, unchanged on the month, but 5 million mt higher than the previous year. With key corn-producing provinces witnessing excessive water, crop damage, and the effects of recurring typhoons, an increase in Chinese corn imports is expected, especially amid the fall of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Watch now as Lyn Tattum, Vice President, Head of Events, Training and Media, interviews Tony Potter, Chemicals, Derivatives, Plastics & Materials Lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights, discuss the Asia Chemical Industry outlook and how critical new dyanmics are impacting oil demand. This year APPEC has expanded its reach to include a full-day Chemical Conference on September 5, Tuesday. Register Now

Ryan Monis , director of chemical consulting with S&P Global Commodity Insights, joins Chemical Week senior editor Vincent Valk to discuss a new report detailing the future for low-carbon ammonia, including rising demand and ammonia's potential uses as an energy carrier. The Chemical Week podcast is the industry’s premier platform for wide-ranging discussion of issues impacting the global chemicals sector, hosted by veteran industry journalist Vincent Valk and the editors of Chemical Week. Subscribe to the Chemical Week podcast on your favorite platform, or visit chemweek.com/podcast to view our episode archive. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

InterPipeline's CEO, Todd Karran, discusses how the design of the company's new polyethylene (PE) plant Northern Alberta uses hydrogen internally, giving it a lower carbon footprint. Additionally, the new PE capacity is far away from the hurrican threats and suited to export to towards the east and west coasts, reaching more markets. Learn more about how the chemical industry forges a path to carbon neutrality at the World Petrochemical Conference 2024

As the chemical industry looks to decarbonize, finding ways to produce key materials at scale from renewable feedstocks is a key concern. Chemical Week senior editor Vincent Valk spoke with Michael Deutsch, vice president for biochemicals at UPM, about the company’s plans to build out its biochemicals business, including an industrial-scale plant to produce glycols and renewable functional fillers, using wood as a feedstock. The Chemical Week podcast is the industry’s premier platform for wide-ranging discussion of issues impacting the global chemicals sector, hosted by veteran industry journalist Vincent Valk and the editors of Chemical Week. Subscribe to the Chemical Week podcast on your favorite platform, or visit chemweek.com/podcast to view our episode archive. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

The methanol market and its application as a marine fuel continue to garner support from major shipping companies as they see it as a viable fuel option and an expected ramp-up in bio and e-methanol facilities worldwide is to support this shipping decarbonisation journey. Greg Dolan, Methanol Institute’s CEO sheds some more light on those pressing issues in his interview with Stergios Zacharakis, S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Global Market Lead, Methanol Chain.

Recycled polystyrene could be on the market as food contact materials and articles immediately after industry body Styrenics Circular Solution submitted a notification of a "novel technology" under EU regulation 2022/1616, SCS said. "Whilst the notification is subject to a verification by the competent authority, the submission means that rPS produced with the notified installations and technology may be placed as FCM on the market immediately," SCS said. The technology makes use of a so-called ABA structure, i.e. sandwiching a middle layer of rigid recycled polystyrene material in between two layers of virgin polystyrene, to ensure the safe use of R-PS as food contact material behind a functional barrier. A consortium organised by SCS of European manufacturers, converters and recyclers, is responsible for leading the development of such a technology and demonstrated the safety of recycled polystyrene used behind a functional barrier in compliance to EU regulations relating to food contact compliance. There has been talk that some polystyrene producers have started promoting the material, with a distributor anticipating some volumes would be made available in 2024. Currently in the European market within the realm of food-grade recycled polymers, only R-PET materials are commonly traded, as all other recycled polymer types may be required to go through the route of "novel technology" in order to be recognised as food safe, according to EU regulation 2022/1616 which came into force October 2022. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed food grade R-PET pellets at Eur1,400/mt ($1,530/mt) FD Northwest Europe June 19.

Major chemical producers, including LyondellBasell, Air Products, Eastman Chemical, and Covestro, have issued green bonds to help fund projects relate to net-zero and decarbonization initiatives. These can include projects related to circular economy, advanced recycling, hydrogen production, and battery materials – key areas of interest as the chemical industry looks to ramp up its net-zero efforts. A green bond is “any type of bond instrument where the proceeds or an equivalent amount will be exclusively applied to finance or re-finance, in part or in full, new and/or existing eligible green projects,” according to the International Capital Market Association’s (ICMA) statement of green bond principles, which were last updated in 2021. An “eligible green project” could include investments in areas such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, pollution prevention and control, circular economy products, and sustainable water management, among other areas, according to ICMA. Circular Economy Circular economy is a major investment theme for the green bonds issued so far by chemical companies. LyondellBasell, which completed a $500 million green bond offering last month, highlights circular economy projects in the company’s Green Bond Framework, which was published along with the bond offering. “We are taking steps to increase our plastics recycling capacity to tackle the challenge of plastic waste and make progress on our goal to produce and market two million metric tons of polymers from recycled or renewable-based sources annually by 2030,” LyondellBasell said in the framework. The company highlighted a line of products made via mechanical or advanced recycling, as well as the launch of its circular and low carbon solutions business. Green bonds provided a logical way align financing with the company’s sustainability goals, LyondellBasell told CW. “LyondellBasell has clear ambitions in the circular and low carbon solutions space,” the company said. “We view this as a key growth driver of our business.” The circular and low carbon solutions business will account for about 15% of LyondellBasell’s capital expenditures through 2030, the company added. “We expect LyondellBasell’s capital expenditures will average $2 billion annually from 2023 through 2025 and remain within historical ranges through 2027.” Covestro and Eastman Chemical also plan to use capital raised from green bonds to fund circular economy projects. “Covestro can leverage procurement on the one hand and the development of our own innovative process technologies for CO2 use, biotechnology, and plastics recycling using chemical means, on the other hand,” the company said in its green financing framework last year. New Energy Air Products, which raised more than $1.3 billion in a multi-currency green bond offering in March, has emphasized its role in the hydrogen economy. The green bond offering “makes us the first US chemical company to issue with green and blue hydrogen as an eligible expenditure category, further reinforcing our leading position advancing the energy transition through hydrogen for zero-emission transportation and industrial decarbonization,” Air Products CEO Seifi Ghasemi said. Air Products plans to spend $15 billion in capex on energy transition projects through 2027, including major investments in green and blue hydrogen production, as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS). Projects are underway in Saudi Arabia, Canada, and at three locations in the US. LG Chem, meanwhile, plans to invest the $300 million it raised in a green bond offering in July 2022 in areas related to electric vehicle (EV) battery materials, such as cathode materials and separators. The offering came on the heels of a $1 billion green bond issue in mid-2021. The company is targeting over $22 billion in battery materials sales by 2030, a roughly six-fold increase from 2022. LG Chem’s green bond proceeds have helped fund a capacity expansion for cathode materials at a plant in Cheongju, South Korea, among other projects, the company said in its last green bond impact report in September. For more chemical industry insight and news visit www.chemweek.com