Electric vehicle sales in Europe's largest passenger car markets increased to record highs in 2022, boosted by government incentives, although a number of countries will likely see subsidies for EVs being reduced or eliminated in 2023, which could have some downside risk. The reduction in subsidies comes at a time when battery metal prices are strong, with lithium prices ending 2022 more than double where they were at the start of the year, boosted in part by the increased global EV demand. Click here to see the full-size infographic Learn more: Latest Insight Blog entry: EV sales momentum to face challenges in 2023, but long-term expectations unaffected . And in the latest Platts Future Energy podcast , we uncovered the potential roadblocks facing the EV market in 2023. From lithium prices to government subsidies, learn how these factors may impact EV sales and the battery metals market:

California continues subsidizing its EV market UK’s HyNet backs blue H2 plan with offtake commitments Investor confidence returns to Australia’s carbon market California continues to subsidize its electric vehicle industry with four grants totaling $46 million awarded to companies across the state’s EV economy. The grants, approved Jan. 25 by the California Energy Commission, were awarded to a manufacturer of electric farming tractors, a battery manufacturer, an electric forklift manufacturer and a builder of EV recharging equipment. The commission also has been heavily subsidizing the deployment of hydrogen refueling stations for fuel cell electric vehicles. The commission said last week that it currently has 175 stations in operation or in planning stages that will be able to support a fleet of 238,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles. Currently, there are 12,169 FCEVs on California roads. The UK’s HyNet project is fast becoming an exemplar of industrial cooperation, driving a nascent hydrogen economy. The blue hydrogen cluster has just landed a 200-MW offtake agreement with Tata Chemicals, following a 300-MW offtake deal with glass maker Encirc in December and an earlier agreement to look at supplying Manchester Airport. Meanwhile the EU's Green Deal Industrial Plan, announced Jan. 17 by EC President Ursula von der Leyen, represents "a conscious decision to emulate...rather than challenge" the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, according to sector association WindEurope. The plan aims to accelerate permitting for clean-tech production sites in Europe, as well as measures to simplify state-aid rules and provide subsidies to manufacturers. In Asia Pacific, the Adani Group, led by Asia’s richest man and the world’s fourth richest person Gautam Adani, has been targeted by US-based short seller Hindenburg Research, which has called out the Indian company for high levels of debt, use of offshore tax havens and accounting irregularities. Adani is spearheading India's hydrogen push and is a major investor in the country’s renewables sector, and any impact on its corporate structure or ability to raise capital will have implications for the country’s overall clean energy ambitions. Investor confidence has clearly returned to Australia’s carbon market in a big way. The Australian government's proposed carbon market reforms have stoked buying interest in Australian Carbon Credit Units, or ACCUs, with prices surging by more than 14% in the two weeks prior to Jan. 26, trade volumes hitting record levels and firms hoarding credits in anticipation of higher prices, traders, brokers and market participants told S&P Global Commodity Insights. Last week, Shell and Boston Consulting Group published a report that average prices paid by voluntary carbon credit buyers are likely to increase 57% by 2030 from current levels and the study expects the voluntary carbon market to grow five-fold by 2030 – Rocco Canonica Americas SPGlobal.com Texas researchers push for geothermal's rise from obscurity US DOE awards $118 million to advance, accelerate biofuels production Platts Dimensions Pro California Energy Commission says hydrogen refueling stations outstripping demand California commission approves $46 million for ZEV, equipment manufacturing US think tank watches for 'systemic shift’ toward energy transition in 2023 EMEA SPGlobal.com EU green plan aims to rival US climate law, repel deindustrialization fears INTERVIEW: Volatility buoys UK battery market despite rising costs, supply challenges French electrolyzer McPhy grows order book, secures German steel project Premium content (available exclusively on Platts Dimensions Pro ) Vertex Hydrogen signs 200-MW offtake agreement with Tata for HyNet project Voluntary carbon credit prices to rise 57% by 2030: Shell report APAC SPGlobal.com ANALYSIS: Australia’s carbon reform stokes buying interest for credit units; liquidity, prices surge Premium content (available exclusively on Platts Dimensions Pro ) India's Adani faces allegations as it opens share sale to fund renewable projects Japan aims to start storing 6 mil-12 mil mt/year of CO2 for CCS by 2030 Indonesia to set emission quotas, kick off carbon trading for coal-fired power plants Voluntary carbon credit prices to rise 57% by 2030, says Shell report Chart of the week: Quotes of the week : "There is no doubt that the European response to the Inflation Reduction Act is going to have...a material positive impact for the entire industry," Mads Nipper, CEO of Denmark's Orsted, one of the world's largest wind farm developers. "Geothermal doesn't show up in the radar of models or in reports. Did they talk about it at the World Economic Forum? No. But should they have? Absolutely. … I cannot for the life of me understand why geothermal is not on the tip of everyone's tongue right now, and that is something that we are certainly trying to solve with this report." -- Jamie Beard, founder of the geothermal accelerator nonprofit Project InnerSpace Price of the week : GBP50.00/MWh Average UK peak power premium to baseload in recent months, highlighting the value battery storage is able to capture.

Some European countries could struggle to meet the EU's 2030 recycled plastic targets, Antonello Ciotti, president of Petcore Europe, a Brussels-based group representing the PET value chain, said in an interview in which he discussed the main issues facing the recycled PET market ahead of the annual Petcore conference. Impact of the single-use plastics directive The single-use plastics directive being implemented by the European Union states that by 2025, 25% of plastic material in PET bottles must be of recycled origin. "This target makes sense," Ciotti told S&P Global Commodity Insights, pointing to Eunomia data that states as of 2020 the average collection rates of PET bottles in Europe allows to feed up to around 23% of recycled material back into future PET bottles. Forecasting forward to 2025, Ciotti believes that Europe should be able to cope with the goals set out in the directive. However, going forward to later goals within the single-use plastics directive, such as 30% of plastic in PET bottles should be made up of recycled material in 2030, Ciotti said some former Eastern European countries will struggle. He attributed this not to the capacity of recyclers able to produce recycled PET products, but to lower collection rates in those countries. Ciotti said the best route to combat collection rate issues is deposit schemes for recycling, which are already in place in some places like Germany, being implemented across Europe. Ciotti said "the way societies are organized" is a key point to implementation. He pointed to an inherent issue with deposit schemes, namely, the need for dedicated space for the deposit areas within shops. The "population of countries such as Italy and Spain rely more heavily on small shops to purchase their groceries," Ciotti said, which wouldn't have the space and funds to cope with the deposit system. On the other hand, countries such as the UK and Germany have "larger retail chains that would be able to provide the space and funds necessary to commit to the deposit system," Ciotti said. Ciotti also said he believed the implementation of recycling policies within Europe is more top-down rather than being generated by the masses. He said during the current economic climate, people are more concerned about the price of the bottle they are purchasing, rather than if it is environmentally sustainable. Ultimately, the "final consumer cares about recycling content but does not want to pay more for it." Imports interact with EU policy, sustainability desires Europe's growing focus on sustainability, coupled with increasing prices for recycled PET during the first half of 2022, saw many imports heading to Europe, Ciotti said. With mandatory recycling content policies a rarity outside Europe, flow was opened globally into Europe. The key difficulty facing imports into Europe are certification issues, as the import material may not be up to the standard required by European consumers, Ciotti said. He also said the question posed about imports at the moment was how to offset the carbon footprint of global travel with the environmental benefits of recycled PET. "The pollution from transport is much higher than production of plastics in Europe," Ciotti said. Moving forward, Ciotti hopes that European policy explicitly dictates the input into recycled material should be from a European source rather than any source. Environmentally friendly policy drives R-PET prices The price rises seen for recycled PET in the first half of 2022 were due to decisions made by brand owners in order to become more environmentally friendly, Ciotti said. This move inflated demand for R-PET, raising the price far above the price paid for virgin PET. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed recycled PET clear flake at Eur2,150/mt FD NWE June 30, with prices falling to Eur1,500/mt FD NWE by Dec. 30. Virgin PET was assessed at Eur1,730/mt FD NWE July 6, with values falling to Eur1,280/mt by Jan. 4. While this price trend can be partly attributed to normal R-PET seasonal demand, Ciotti said "recession in September 2022 made people less concerned about recycling," bringing a drop in demand for R-PET products as consumers focused on affording everyday items. Also, several big brands reversed their goals of high recycled content in their products, leading to reduced R-PET demand. "All brand owners were pushing to go over the 50% minimum target required by 2025," Ciotti said. "When they realized the price delta between the virgin and recycled was too wide, they reduced their targets. Some brands were aiming for 100% recycled content." Prices are not expected to bounce back to mid-2022 levels, Ciotti said. But this depends on "what the consumers are ready to pay for the extra cost for recycled content." The greenwashing issue Ciotti highlighted a key issue, greenwashing, he thought was facing the recycled plastics industry. He describes greenwashing as when "someone pretends to improve the sustainability of their product but is not." Ciotti uses an example of a "PET half liter bottle being replaced with a carton box, which takes more energy to recycle." He said the European Commission indicated that 42 percent of claims of sustainability by textile companies were exaggerated, false or deceptive. He added he hoped more would be done to tackle greenwashing. The annual Petcore conference takes place in Brussels Feb. 1-2.

April 17-20, 2023 | Fairmont Grand Hotel Geneva, Switzerland Keeping pace with the Sugar and Biofuels industry with insights from Platts and F.O. Licht Making our way back to Geneva in 2023 with both the Geneva Sugar and Biofuels Conference, we bring together leading Sugar, Biofuels growers, producers, traders and, buyers. Delivering first hand insights into the industry through innovative and interactive event formats, explore unrivalled networking opportunities. REGISTER NOW

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Join S&P Global experts from our Commodity Insights and Mobility divisions as they delve into the potential roadblocks facing the electric vehicle market in 2023. From fluctuating lithium prices to the phasing out of government subsidies, learn how these factors may impact EV sales and the battery metals market. Stay ahead of the curve as we navigate the challenges and opportunities of the ever-evolving EV industry . Related price assessments: BATLC04 - Lithium Carbonate CIF North Asia $/mt BATLH04 - Lithium Hydroxide CIF North Asia $/mt More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

The EU's new gas market correction mechanism could impact financial and energy markets in future, European regulators said Jan. 23. Energy ministers agreed the mechanism in December – the latest in a string of market interventions aimed at limiting the damage of unsustainable wholesale energy costs. This infographic captures the major decisions taken so far. Click to see the full size (latest update January 2023)

In this week's Market Movers Europe with Henry Edwardes-Evans: EU’s Russian oil ban looms large EU agencies to publish report on gas price cap French nuclear set to rise again Belgium’s Tihange-2 to shut Jan. 31 View Full Transcript Video Transcript The

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is starting the new year with a 2-2 partisan split after former Chairman Richard Glick was forced to bid adieu to the agency after his renomination stalled out. The divide could complicate action on some of the thornier issues before the agency, and there is a risk of 2-2 deadlocked votes that could stall project authorizations. S&P Global senior editor Maya Weber joined the podcast to break down what’s happening at FERC and what its agenda could mean for natural gas producers and other stakeholders. She also shed light on climate actions being pursued by the Biden administration that could impact the gas sector and provided some clarity on whether President Joe Biden is really trying to ban gas stoves. Stick around after the interview for Chris van Moessner with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers. Related content: New FERC chair sets sights on reliability, transmission, environmental justice (premium content) White House guidance on GHGs could add to friction for natural gas projects (premium content) Biden to tap Phillips to head US FERC until permanent chair is confirmed: WH official More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

JERA seeks blue ammonia to co-fire 1-GW coal plant Middle East goes big on transition talk in COP28 run-up Fears of IRA-induced US-EU 'trade wars’ diminish In Asia-Pacific, Japanese power generator JERA has signed MOUs with Norway's Yara and the US’ CF Industries to develop some 500,000 mt/year of blue ammonia for 20% co-firing at its 1-GW No. 4 Hekinan coal-fired unit. Japan estimates ammonia demand for power generation at 3 million mt/year in 2030 and expects it to grow to 30 million mt/year in 2050, equivalent to 1.5 times the current international trade of ammonia as a fertilizer. Meanwhile, China's power consumption rose 3.6% year on year to 8,637 TWh in 2022, easing sharply from over 10.3% growth in 2021. Installed generation capacity rose 7.8% to 2,564 GW, with hydro, solar and wind capacity rising 6%, 28% and 11% respectively. China's total installed generation capacity of renewable energy now exceeds 1,200 GW. Energy transition news abounded in the Middle East at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, with national oil company ADNOC signing several agreements across carbon capture and ammonia cracking into hydrogen, renewables company Masdar developing projects in Azerbaijan, and -- closer to home for our European readers -- BP targeting FIDs on three 100-MW scale hydrogen projects in Europe this year. News was less good for the transition in the UK, with would-be battery maker Britishvolt going into administration after failing to secure a buyer, and electrolyzer manufacturer ITM Power posting yet another profit warning as it reviews its operations after supply chain issues and macroeconomic headwinds disrupted its planned scale-up. The US’s Inflation Reduction Act passage last year sparked concerns of a US-EU trade war as some feared that the bill could redirect investment flows from one continent to the other. But these fears may have been overblown, analysts now say. Think tanks and industry groups see the risk of trade disputes diminishing, given the high degree of coordinated discussion between EU and US officials, and shared recognition that a trade war would harm both sides. However, the EU is still aiming to combat potential market distortions created by the IRA. At the World Economic Forum last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EC’s proposed Net-Zero Industry Act was designed to fend off attempts to lure production capacity away from the EU – James Burgess Asia-Pacific SPGlobal.com CHINA DATA: 2022 power demand growth eases to 3.6% in 2022 from 10.3% a year earlier Japan's JERA awards Yara, CF Industries in tenders for up to 500,000 mt/year ammonia supply Western Australia: A test bed for the new global hydrogen economy Premium content (available exclusively on Platts Dimensions Pro ) Voluntary carbon credit prices to rise 57% by 2030: Shell report Topsoe to enable China’s first commercial green ammonia plant with 390,000 mt/year capacity India’s renewable hydrogen policy aims for 10% of global market by 2030 EMEA SPGlobal.com Big oil bets big on green hydrogen as Shell to operate Oman project UK battery developer Britishvolt goes into administration From hydrogen to SAF, Essar eyes cleaner and bigger UK energy footprint Premium content (available exclusively on Platts Dimensions Pro ) Trafigura emphasizes value of carbon removal credits, vows to increase investments BP looking to FID three green hydrogen projects in Europe by end-2023 North America SPGlobal.com EU to counter US climate plan with new green industry law, clean tech funding Analysts, stakeholders tamp down US-EU trade war worries over EV tax credits Platts Dimensions Pro Anaergia touts 'precedent-setting' RNG supply deal with Canada’s largest refinery US corporations inch direct air capture technology forward with CO2 deals Hydrogen blending not viable in most pipeline systems: report Chart of the week: US wind and solar will account for 16% of total generation in 2023, doubling from five years ago, according to the EIA. Coal is forecast to fall 2 percentage points to 18% of the mix in 2023, while gas is expected to fall from 39% to 38% Quote of the week: "The risk of an [EU-US] trade war is relatively low and largely depends on unintended consequences, including miscalculation as policymakers and stakeholders grapple with changing rules of the road." -- Benjamin Salisbury, director of research and senior policy analyst at Height Capital Markets Price of the week: $73,000/mt Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed seaborne lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide at $73,000/mt CIF North Asia Jan. 17, up 116% year on year

The world's pipeline of new conventional oil projects remains robust despite growing scrutiny over new upstream oil investments and a focus on less carbon-intensive crudes. Oil projects being tracked by S&P Global Commodity Insights are set to provide almost 6.5 million b/d of new peak capacity by 2030. Read more about it: Tepid upstream spending recovery in 2022 fuels future supply crunch fears The following is a snapshot of the world's major non-OPEC upstream oil projects under development that are needed to replace declining output from mature fields and bolster non-OPEC supply growth. Click here for the full-size interactive

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Jan. 18 that the EU was "safe" for the winter having warded off Russian gas blackmail. With European gas prices more than five times lower than their summer peak, and electricity prices having followed suit, Russia's weaponization of energy -- as it is regularly described by the west -- is no longer having as big an impact as once feared. There have been no blackouts and no gas shortages, and while Russian gas exports by pipeline to Europe have fallen to a trickle, in its place LNG suppliers and Norwegian producers stepped up to fill the gap and storage sites were filled to more than 95% of capacity. In oil, the discount of Russia's key Urals export grade to Dated Brent soared to record highs of over $40/b in mid-2022 and the value of Urals has again slumped since the G7's price cap and EU embargo on Russian crude kicked in. High energy prices and redirecting oil flows have given the Russian economy some resilience, but there are signs that sanctions and increased spending are having an impact. Click here to get a closer look

In this episode of the Commodities Focus podcast, our experts delve into the Black Sea wheat trade situation amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, from the impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on global food security to the challenges faced by the initiative and the future of wheat exports in the region. Additionally, our experts also discuss the impact of sanctions on Russian fertilizer supplies and how it will shape the global demand in 2023. Related content on Platts Dimensions Pro: Grains news and insights Dry Freight news and insights More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).

Renewable project financings are expected to pick up in 2023, backed by federal policy, an increasing focus on environmental principles and energy security. Experts participating in a Jan. 13 webinar hosted by law firm Norton Rose Fulbright on the outlook for cost of capital said they expect $20 billion to $21 billion in tax equity financing for renewable projects in 2023. This is an increase from about $18 billion in tax equity financing realized in 2022, roughly a $2 billion drop from what was expected and a 10% decrease from 2021. "We expect to see the transition to a clean energy future accelerate," said Jack Cargas, managing director and head of tax equity origination at Bank of America Corp. "The passage of the climate bill [known as the Inflation Reduction Act] is viewed by many in this industry as the single most positive development in the history of renewable energy finance in the United States." In 2022, supply chain constraints, construction delays and the lingering impact of the threat of tariffs on crucial materials continued to delay renewable development, especially solar projects. "We would suggest that not only were there supply chain delays and construction delays, there were [also] a number of sponsors who were looking forward toward the availability of new types of tax credits starting in 2023," Cargas said. Inflation Reduction Act impact The Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, was signed by President Joe Biden in August 2022 and contains $370 billion in energy climate spending, including tax incentives for solar, wind, hydrogen and energy storage projects. About $270 billion of the new law is tied to various tax credits, but project developers and financers await more details from the Internal Revenue Service on implementation. "We expect it to be something of a swing year as there is expected to be a 12- to 18-month gap between passage of the climate bill and actual real impact on the marketplace," Cargas said. Backed by the IRA, bankers and asset managers expect 2023 to have about the same level of tax equity activity as was expected in 2022. "We're bullish, in light of the climate bill, but we should point out that the system is sort of already clogged. Calendars are already full," Cargas said, adding it could take months for project sponsors to consummate deals. "These delays are compounding themselves." Rising interest rates also are having an impact on project finance, further restricting the environment for developers seeking sponsors. "Tax equity investors are being even more selective than before," said Rubiao Song, managing director and head of energy investments at JPMorgan Chase & Co. "Some projects will not be able to attract tax equity." Provisions within the IRA, however, allow tax equity investors to buy and sell production tax credits and investment tax credits. "We do expect to be a purchaser [of tax credits] in some cases, and we expect to be a seller in other cases," Cargas said. "Bank of America wants to be relevant in this evolving market and as the entire market as a whole is tax equity constrained, these transferability trades really are going to take center stage." JP Morgan, meanwhile, expects financing for onshore and offshore wind projects to overtake solar financing in 2023. "The number of megaprojects that [are expected] to come into the market in 2023 for financing is phenomenal," Song said. ESG still 'hot' Ralph Cho, global co-head of power and infrastructure finance for Investec Group, said lenders and investors continue to seek environmental, social and governance, or ESG, opportunities. "I think this will continue to stay hot," Cho said. Cho, however, said "not all deals are ESG," with the war in Ukraine contributing to debt activity in the energy security and LNG space. In addition, the IRA opens up lending opportunities for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, transmission, standalone storage, renewable natural gas, hydrogen and carbon capture technology. "In general, there is a very, very strong appetite for all of these types of deals from the lending community," Cho said. "We just need to ... see more deal flow. It [also] has to be a structure that is financeable and does not look like we're taking equity-like risk." Proven technology and contracted revenues also are important, Cho added. Overall, Cho said funds are expected to "continue to raise large amounts of capital" in the debt markets in 2023. Banks, however, are being limited in how many deals they can do because of staffing issues, said Elizabeth Waters, managing director of project finance for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., or MUFG, Americas. "So, you're going to want to pick the cleanest deals out there and [the] most profitable," Waters said, adding "the pendulum is now swinging in favor of wind" projects. S&P Global Commodity Insights reporter Darren Sweeney produces content for distribution on Capital IQ Pro .

China has already hinted at its first batch of oil product export quota for 2023, which has left some market watchers nervous amid the current economic headwinds at the start of this year. In this episode, we look deeper at the implications of the oil product export quota from China, how it could impact the oil product supply-demand fundamentals in Asia, and what the rest of Asia can expect. S&P Global Commodity Insights' experts Oceana Zhou and Su Yeen Cheong from the Platts editorial team, and Wang Zhuwei, Manager for Asia oil analytics. Related price symbols: PGAEY00 - Gasoline Unl 92 FOB Spore Cargo PJABF00 - Jet Kero FOB Spore Cargo AAOVC00 - Gasoil .001%S (10ppm) FOB Spore Cargo POABC00 - Gasoil FOB Spore Cargo PUADV00 - FO 180 CST 3.5%S FOB Spore Cargo PPXDK00 - FO 380 CST 3.5%S FOB Spore Cargo PAAAD00 - Naphtha C+F Japan Cargo $/mt (NextGen MOC) More listening options: No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P).