After a year of chaotic trade flows in the wheat market, global supplies are likely to normalize in 2023. According to the US Department of Agriculture, global wheat output is seen rising slightly to 783.8 million mt in marketing year 2022-23 (July-June), while global imports are estimated to increase 5% year on year to 213 million mt.

During the past year, global wheat supplies tightened in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine war and continued weather concerns in North America. Global supplies are seen recovering due to a rise in exports from Canada and Russia, which are seen offsetting the shrinking supplies from Argentina and Ukraine. The likely increase in global shipments is seen weighing on prices across origins such as Australia, Canada and Russia.

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