S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – January 23, 2023

In Asia-Pacific, Japanese power generator JERA has signed MOUs with Norway's Yara and the US' CF Industries to develop some 500,000 mt/year of blue ammonia for 20% co-firing at its 1-GW No. 4 Hekinan coal-fired unit. Japan estimates ammonia demand for power generation at 3 million mt/year in 2030 and expects it to grow to 30 million mt/year in 2050, equivalent to 1.5 times the current international trade of ammonia as a fertilizer. Meanwhile, China's power consumption rose 3.6% year on year to 8,637 TWh in 2022, easing sharply from over 10.3% growth in 2021. Installed generation capacity rose 7.8% to 2,564 GW, with hydro, solar and wind capacity rising 6%, 28% and 11% respectively. China's total installed generation capacity of renewable energy now exceeds 1,200 GW.

Energy transition news abounded in the Middle East at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, with national oil company ADNOC signing several agreements across carbon capture and ammonia cracking into hydrogen, renewables company Masdar developing projects in Azerbaijan, and -- closer to home for our European readers -- BP targeting FIDs on three 100-MW scale hydrogen projects in Europe this year. News was less good for the transition in the UK, with would-be battery maker Britishvolt going into administration after failing to secure a buyer, and electrolyzer manufacturer ITM Power posting yet another profit warning as it reviews its operations after supply chain issues and macroeconomic headwinds disrupted its planned scale-up.

The US's Inflation Reduction Act passage last year sparked concerns of a US-EU trade war as some feared that the bill could redirect investment flows from one continent to the other. But these fears may have been overblown, analysts now say. Think tanks and industry groups see the risk of trade disputes diminishing, given the high degree of coordinated discussion between EU and US officials, and shared recognition that a trade war would harm both sides. However, the EU is still aiming to combat potential market distortions created by the IRA. At the World Economic Forum last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EC's proposed Net-Zero Industry Act was designed to fend off attempts to lure production capacity away from the EU – James Burgess

Asia-Pacific

SPGlobal.com

CHINA DATA: 2022 power demand growth eases to 3.6% in 2022 from 10.3% a year earlier

Japan's JERA awards Yara, CF Industries in tenders for up to 500,000 mt/year ammonia supply

Western Australia: A test bed for the new global hydrogen economy

Premium content (available exclusively on Platts Dimensions Pro)

Voluntary carbon credit prices to rise 57% by 2030: Shell report

Topsoe to enable China's first commercial green ammonia plant with 390,000 mt/year capacity

India's renewable hydrogen policy aims for 10% of global market by 2030

EMEA

SPGlobal.com

Big oil bets big on green hydrogen as Shell to operate Oman project

UK battery developer Britishvolt goes into administration

From hydrogen to SAF, Essar eyes cleaner and bigger UK energy footprint

Premium content (available exclusively on Platts Dimensions Pro)

Trafigura emphasizes value of carbon removal credits, vows to increase investments

BP looking to FID three green hydrogen projects in Europe by end-2023

North America

SPGlobal.com

EU to counter US climate plan with new green industry law, clean tech funding

Analysts, stakeholders tamp down US-EU trade war worries over EV tax credits

Platts Dimensions Pro

Anaergia touts 'precedent-setting' RNG supply deal with Canada's largest refinery

US corporations inch direct air capture technology forward with CO2 deals

Hydrogen blending not viable in most pipeline systems: report

Chart of the week:

US wind and solar will account for 16% of total generation in 2023, doubling from five years ago, according to the EIA. Coal is forecast to fall 2 percentage points to 18% of the mix in 2023, while gas is expected to fall from 39% to 38%

Quote of the week:

"The risk of an [EU-US] trade war is relatively low and largely depends on unintended consequences, including miscalculation as policymakers and stakeholders grapple with changing rules of the road." -- Benjamin Salisbury, director of research and senior policy analyst at Height Capital Markets

Price of the week:

$73,000/mt

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed seaborne lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide at $73,000/mt CIF North Asia Jan. 17, up 116% year on year

Tags

  • Energy Transition

Related content

News

S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – Apr 15, 2024

Moment of truth looms for European green hydrogen investments Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Time is running out to get on track with Europe's ambitious 2030 hydrogen production targets as developers due to take final investment decisions battle macroeconomic headwinds, industry representatives said at the Reuters Hydrogen conference in Amsterdam. Recent years have seen a multitude of project announcements, pre-front end engineering design studies, FEED studies and preliminary investments, though FIDs have been scarce. “There are some board rooms that are getting a little bit impatient by now,” Rabobank Executive Director Hyung-ja de Zeeuw said April 9. “If you think that we’ve only got six years left until 2030, I guess 2024 is going to be a key year for clean hydrogen projects here in Europe.” Around 4% of announced clean hydrogen projects in Europe have taken FIDs, according to Hydrogen Council Director Policy and Partnerships Daria Nochevnik. Price of the week: Eur4.50/kg The price ceiling for the first pilot auction under the European Hydrogen Bank mechanism. Results will be announced April 30, with the fund expected to clear well below the cap. Editor’s pick: Premium and free content SPGlobal.com Biden's carbon capture plans inch closer to reality amid uptick in well permits The Biden administration's ambition to capture carbon dioxide on a large scale and inject it back into the ground may have seemed daunting one year ago with only two CO2 storage facilities in the US. But a boost in federal spending on the technology in 2021 and 2022 may finally be bearing fruit after a sudden uptick in permits, according to industry watchers. Australia to unveil new plan for clean energy, green manufacturing: PM Australia will unveil a new plan in 2024 to support clean energy and green manufacturing projects to compete better against other nations’ subsidy schemes such as the US’ Inflation Reduction Act to draw investments in clean fuels, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, in what is being seeing as a pointer to big new fund allocations coming up. Escalating geopolitical tensions may give carbon market a key role to play: GenZero Carbon markets will be most critical in a scenario where global climate action is fragmented and geopolitical tensions are at their highest, as opposed to a scenario of full climate cooperation where carbon markets are least needed, Singapore’s state-owned decarbonization investment platform GenZero said. Platts Connect European Hydrogen Bank pilot auction to clear well below Eur4.50/kg price ceiling The first pilot auction for green hydrogen production under the EU’s European Hydrogen Bank facility will clear comfortably below the price ceiling of Eur4.50/kg ($4.89/kg), Innovation Fund policy officer Johanna Schiele said April 10. The results of the first Eur800 million auction will be released on April 30, Schiele said. Hydrogen market developing in New York; regulatory, power market challenges remain Using hydrogen to generate power in New York does not currently add up economically, but there is reason for optimism as the technology to do so will likely be needed in some capacity to help meet state decarbonization goals, experts said. China’s CEIC starts construction of 100,000 mt/year capacity green ammonia project China Energy Investment Corporation, one of the country’s largest state-owned energy companies, has started construction of its renewable ammonia project in Cangzhou in the eastern province of Hebei with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 mt, likely to be completed by Q4 2025.

News

S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – Apr 8, 2024

US Solar eclipse expected to significantly reduce solar power output in several markets Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together everything you need to know about the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. A total solar eclipse will cross North America on April 8, passing over Mexico, the US and Canada, causing significant reductions in solar power plant output with the greatest impacts occurring in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and PJM Interconnection power markets. An annular eclipse obscures most of the sun except for a halo of sunlight around the edge of the moon’s dark disc, while during a total eclipse the entirety of the sun will be blocked by the moon. In Dallas, the partial eclipse will begin at 12:23 pm CT, with maximum totality occurring at 1:42 pm and the partial eclipse will end at 3:02 pm, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Maximum totality will reach Cleveland at 3:15 pm ET, Buffalo at 3:20 pm, and Caribou, Maine at 3:33 pm. Solar power production in ERCOT is expected to drop to 3 GW generated during the hour of totality versus the roughly 18 GW that is usually generated during that same time of day on a clear sky day in April, according to Maxar Technologies, an advanced forecasting company that provides data to US power grid operators. As the moon’s shadow moves north through the PJM footprint, solar power output is expected to drop to around 1.6 GW during the hour of totality compared with roughly 7GW on a clear sky day in April, a Maxar spokesperson said in an email. Even under cloudy skies, PJM is preparing for temporary losses of at least 80% to 85% of the production from the approximately 8.2 GW of grid-connected solar or metered solar resources that are part of the PJM solar generation fleet in early April, the grid operator said in a media release. Price of the week: On the Intercontinental Exchange during April 5 trading, ERCOT North Hub day-ahead on-peak rose about $17.50 from its previous settlement to $27/MWh and its corresponding real-time peak contract jumped about $19 to around $29.50/MWh for April 8 delivery. Editor’s pick: Premium and free content SPGlobal.com INTERVIEW: Building a credible carbon market takes time; 'bear with us', says ICVCM A step-by-step approach to informing the market about which project methodologies meet high-quality carbon credit thresholds is considered the best way forward given the high number of methodologies involved, the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market said. The ICVCM confirmed that carbon credit programs from American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve and Gold Standard had met its high-quality Core Carbon Principle labels. China kicks off consultation on expanding compliance carbon market to cement sector China has kicked off public consultation on drafting guidelines around emissions accounting and verification for the country's cement sector, laying the foundation for its inclusion in the national compliance carbon market, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said in a notice late April 3. Thailand's Bangchak, Japan's Sumitomo join forces for green UCO-to-SAF supply chain Thailand-based energy firm Bangchak and Japan's Sumitomo Corp. have signed a cooperative framework agreement for the procurement of used cooking oil and the sale of sustainable aviation fuel, the companies said in an April 3 joint release. Platts Connect Denmark paves way for hydrogen pipeline exporting surplus wind to Germany Denmark is paving the way for state financing for the Jutland hydrogen backbone pipeline to export surplus wind power to Germany, the energy ministry said. Political parties agreed five framework conditions that need to be met for grid operator Energinet to go-ahead with the project including a 1.4-GW or 44% of total capacity booking requirement by private companies. China’s domestic renewable energy certificate trade volume up tenfold in 2023 The annual trading volume of China’s domestic renewable energy certificates, called Green Electricity Certificates, increased almost tenfold to 96 million certificates in 2023, a record high for a year, from 9.69 million certificates in 2022, data from the country’s GEC trading platform showed. Fortescue misses FID date for key renewable hydrogen project under Genex PPA Fortescue Future Industry has missed the deadline for final investment decision (FID) for a key renewable hydrogen/ammonia project in Australia, thus failing to meet a buyer’s condition in a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Genex Power, Genex said April 2.

News

Infographic: The impact of the total solar eclipse on US power generation

A total solar eclipse will cross North America on April 8, resulting in heavily reduced solar power plant output. It will differ from an annular eclipse in that the sun will be entirely blocked by the moon, rather than partially blocked with a visible halo of sunlight. Power markets in Texas and the Mid-Atlantic region are expected to see the biggest impact in solar-powered generation. Related feature: US solar eclipse expected to significantly reduce solar power output in several markets (subscriber content) Click here for the full-size infographic

News

Infographic: Grid-forming inverter technology to boost greener power systems

With rapid penetration of solar photovoltaic, wind and battery energy storage, power systems are shifting away from conventional synchronous generators towards power electronics, i.e., inverters, which may lead to risks of grid instability. Grid-forming inverter technology has been developed to support grid operation by providing similar capabilities as synchronous generators. Related report: Grid-forming technology report, 2024 (subscriber content) See the full size infographic here