S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – May 22, 2023

The California coast is the next frontier for offshore wind development in the US. The West Coast is expected to add at least 25 GW of offshore wind power to the national grid by 2045, according to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. However, because the subsurface topography of the Pacific Ocean is considerably deeper than the Atlantic, most West Coast wind will require floating turbine technology. In the meantime, California grid emissions are expected to grow this summer – an unexpected consequence of Washington state's new cap-and-trade program. Carbon traders say that the Washington program will incentivize the state's homegrown clean hydropower to stay in the state rather than be exported to the California grid. A shortfall of clean hydropower imports could prompt California to fill that gap with dirtier sources.

Europe is experiencing a wave of investment in battery recycling capacity, S&P Global Commodity Insights reports. With around 50 new battery production plants set to enter production by 2030, automakers and battery manufacturers are seeking to offset an anticipated global shortfall in critical metals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper, with "black mass" recycling seen as a key route to sustainability. Meanwhile the International Emissions Trading Association reports that carbon emissions reductions could double if countries enhance their cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The trade could surpass $100 billion a year by 2030 if countries choose to effectively cooperate in trading their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), adopting cross-border exchanges of credits known as Internationally Transferable Mitigation Outcomes under Article 6.2, IETA said.

In Asia Pacific, China's Shenghong Petrochemicals received a first blue ammonia cargo from Saudi Arabian Mining Co as part of an agreement to export 25,000 mt. Ma'aden is shipping more than 138,000 mt of blue ammonia to countries that include South Korea, China, Japan, India, Thailand and the European Union. In Australia, meanwhile, energy infrastructure company APA completed a feasibility study for the 100% use of hydrogen in a natural gas pipeline in Western Australia, with positive results opening the way to the next phase of development. Finally Chinese state-owned oil majors Sinopec and PetroChina have outlined plans to build supply chains for green hydrogen production, distribution and consumption akin to natural gas, with similar commercial strategies and infrastructural frameworks. – Henry Edwardes-Evans

North America

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Summit Ag Group to build 'world's largest' ethanol-based SAF plant in USGC

US offshore wind power development expanding beyond the East Coast in 2023

Much of North America risks summer power shortfalls in extreme conditions: NERC

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Washington's cap-and-trade program to drive up California emissions: traders

US EPA sends RFS rule to White House for review as June 14 deadline nears

EMEA

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Black mass recycling emerges as critical component in Europe's battery supply chains

Zimbabwe looks to revamp carbon credit trade, boost revenue

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Better collaboration on Article 6 can double reduction in carbon emissions: report

Phased deliverability key to UK hydrogen auction success: Carlton Power

Companies likely underreporting emissions from electricity use: FlexiDAO report

Asia-Pacific

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G7 leaders call to strengthen climate response, adopt gas investment for energy security

China oil majors plan to model green hydrogen supply chain on natural gas industry

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Saudi Arabia's miner Ma'aden ships first blue ammonia cargo to China

APA to progress 100% hydrogen pipeline plan in Western Australia

Australia needs regulatory framework for hastening CCS opportunities: Santos CEO

Charts of the week:

UK compliance carbon prices have fallen heavily, disengaging from their EU counterparts

Price of the week:

Yuan 13,500/mt

Chinese recycled battery (LFP black mass DDP China) prices are rising steadily on bullish lithium prices

Quotes of the week:

"We have entered the golden age of hydrogen. China will build an ecosystem for green hydrogen as comprehensive as today's natural gas industry. In future, the potential and the scale of China's green hydrogen industry is likely to go far beyond the natural gas industry." - Zou Caineng, Chief Specialist of New Energy with PetroChina

"What you're seeing is a lot of clean [power] resources that generally flowed south [to California] staying in the Pacific Northwest. We think that emissions are going to go up over summer and meaningfully over time just because [California] can no longer rely on the clean resources from the Pacific Northwest, just because the economic incentives to flow south are no longer there." -- Adam Raphaely, head of the carbon trading desk at Mercuria

"The metals used in battery production are finite, but by substituting raw materials mined from the Earth with recycled materials, we can not only cut the carbon footprint of batteries but enable the sustainable long-term use of li-ion battery technology." -- Northvolt Chief Environmental Officer Emma Nehrenheim

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – Apr 15, 2024

Moment of truth looms for European green hydrogen investments Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Time is running out to get on track with Europe's ambitious 2030 hydrogen production targets as developers due to take final investment decisions battle macroeconomic headwinds, industry representatives said at the Reuters Hydrogen conference in Amsterdam. Recent years have seen a multitude of project announcements, pre-front end engineering design studies, FEED studies and preliminary investments, though FIDs have been scarce. “There are some board rooms that are getting a little bit impatient by now,” Rabobank Executive Director Hyung-ja de Zeeuw said April 9. “If you think that we’ve only got six years left until 2030, I guess 2024 is going to be a key year for clean hydrogen projects here in Europe.” Around 4% of announced clean hydrogen projects in Europe have taken FIDs, according to Hydrogen Council Director Policy and Partnerships Daria Nochevnik. Price of the week: Eur4.50/kg The price ceiling for the first pilot auction under the European Hydrogen Bank mechanism. Results will be announced April 30, with the fund expected to clear well below the cap. Editor’s pick: Premium and free content SPGlobal.com Biden's carbon capture plans inch closer to reality amid uptick in well permits The Biden administration's ambition to capture carbon dioxide on a large scale and inject it back into the ground may have seemed daunting one year ago with only two CO2 storage facilities in the US. But a boost in federal spending on the technology in 2021 and 2022 may finally be bearing fruit after a sudden uptick in permits, according to industry watchers. Australia to unveil new plan for clean energy, green manufacturing: PM Australia will unveil a new plan in 2024 to support clean energy and green manufacturing projects to compete better against other nations’ subsidy schemes such as the US’ Inflation Reduction Act to draw investments in clean fuels, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said, in what is being seeing as a pointer to big new fund allocations coming up. Escalating geopolitical tensions may give carbon market a key role to play: GenZero Carbon markets will be most critical in a scenario where global climate action is fragmented and geopolitical tensions are at their highest, as opposed to a scenario of full climate cooperation where carbon markets are least needed, Singapore’s state-owned decarbonization investment platform GenZero said. Platts Connect European Hydrogen Bank pilot auction to clear well below Eur4.50/kg price ceiling The first pilot auction for green hydrogen production under the EU’s European Hydrogen Bank facility will clear comfortably below the price ceiling of Eur4.50/kg ($4.89/kg), Innovation Fund policy officer Johanna Schiele said April 10. The results of the first Eur800 million auction will be released on April 30, Schiele said. Hydrogen market developing in New York; regulatory, power market challenges remain Using hydrogen to generate power in New York does not currently add up economically, but there is reason for optimism as the technology to do so will likely be needed in some capacity to help meet state decarbonization goals, experts said. China’s CEIC starts construction of 100,000 mt/year capacity green ammonia project China Energy Investment Corporation, one of the country’s largest state-owned energy companies, has started construction of its renewable ammonia project in Cangzhou in the eastern province of Hebei with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 mt, likely to be completed by Q4 2025.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – Apr 23, 2024

JERA signs deal with CF Industries to develop 1.4 mil mt/year US ammonia project by 2028 Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring you the biggest stories from the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. Japan's largest power generation company, JERA has agreed with US-based CF Industries to explore the development of a 1.4 million mt/year low-carbon ammonia project at the latter's Blue Point Complex in Louisiana, with the plan to start production in 2028. Under a joint development agreement, JERA is considering taking a 48% stake in the project as well as procuring more than 500,000 mt/year of ammonia to meet low carbon fuel demand in Japan. JERA and CF Industries aim to make a final investment decision "within a year" for the project, which will capture CO2 from production and use it for carbon capture and storage, according to a JERA spokesperson. JERA has pledged to commercialize its ammonia co-firing power generation by 2030 as part of its aim to start using 100% ammonia as fuel in the 2040s for its 2050 carbon neutrality target. Platts, a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed NSW hydrogen produced via alkaline electrolysis at $3.08/kg on April 19, up 33% on the month. It assessed Japan hydrogen produced via alkaline electrolysis at $2.56/kg on April 19, down 42% on the month. SPGlobal.com Uniper delays Rotterdam hydrogen plant amid high grid fees, lack of offtake certainty Uniper has pushed back the startup of the first 100-MW phase of its planned H2Maasvlakte green hydrogen plant in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, after failing to secure a power purchase agreement for the facility, and amid high grid fees and uncertainty over sufficient offtake interest. China kicks off consultation for compliance emission trading rules in 2024-2025 China, the world's largest compliance carbon market by emission volumes covered, has kicked off an internal consultation for the compliance emission trading rules to be implemented in 2024-2025 among power companies, according to a consultation document seen by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Platts Connect Woodside aims for renewable hydrogen supply in Western Australia in 2025 Woodside Energy, that is developing clean hydrogen/ammonia projects in Australia and the US, is targeting supply of renewable hydrogen in Western Australia for industrial and transport customers from its H2Perth refueling project in 2025. Detailed engineering, construction, commissioning and start-up work scopes have been awarded. Twenty-five US states launch legal challenge to Biden tailpipe emissions rule Twenty-five Republican-led states sued the United States Environmental Protection Agency April 18, hoping to block a new EPA rule designed to limit car tailpipe emissions and advance the Biden administration's push for electric vehicle adoption.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights Weekly ET News Highlights – Apr 8, 2024

US Solar eclipse expected to significantly reduce solar power output in several markets Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together everything you need to know about the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices. A total solar eclipse will cross North America on April 8, passing over Mexico, the US and Canada, causing significant reductions in solar power plant output with the greatest impacts occurring in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and PJM Interconnection power markets. An annular eclipse obscures most of the sun except for a halo of sunlight around the edge of the moon’s dark disc, while during a total eclipse the entirety of the sun will be blocked by the moon. In Dallas, the partial eclipse will begin at 12:23 pm CT, with maximum totality occurring at 1:42 pm and the partial eclipse will end at 3:02 pm, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Maximum totality will reach Cleveland at 3:15 pm ET, Buffalo at 3:20 pm, and Caribou, Maine at 3:33 pm. Solar power production in ERCOT is expected to drop to 3 GW generated during the hour of totality versus the roughly 18 GW that is usually generated during that same time of day on a clear sky day in April, according to Maxar Technologies, an advanced forecasting company that provides data to US power grid operators. As the moon’s shadow moves north through the PJM footprint, solar power output is expected to drop to around 1.6 GW during the hour of totality compared with roughly 7GW on a clear sky day in April, a Maxar spokesperson said in an email. Even under cloudy skies, PJM is preparing for temporary losses of at least 80% to 85% of the production from the approximately 8.2 GW of grid-connected solar or metered solar resources that are part of the PJM solar generation fleet in early April, the grid operator said in a media release. Price of the week: On the Intercontinental Exchange during April 5 trading, ERCOT North Hub day-ahead on-peak rose about $17.50 from its previous settlement to $27/MWh and its corresponding real-time peak contract jumped about $19 to around $29.50/MWh for April 8 delivery. Editor’s pick: Premium and free content SPGlobal.com INTERVIEW: Building a credible carbon market takes time; 'bear with us', says ICVCM A step-by-step approach to informing the market about which project methodologies meet high-quality carbon credit thresholds is considered the best way forward given the high number of methodologies involved, the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market said. The ICVCM confirmed that carbon credit programs from American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve and Gold Standard had met its high-quality Core Carbon Principle labels. China kicks off consultation on expanding compliance carbon market to cement sector China has kicked off public consultation on drafting guidelines around emissions accounting and verification for the country's cement sector, laying the foundation for its inclusion in the national compliance carbon market, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said in a notice late April 3. Thailand's Bangchak, Japan's Sumitomo join forces for green UCO-to-SAF supply chain Thailand-based energy firm Bangchak and Japan's Sumitomo Corp. have signed a cooperative framework agreement for the procurement of used cooking oil and the sale of sustainable aviation fuel, the companies said in an April 3 joint release. Platts Connect Denmark paves way for hydrogen pipeline exporting surplus wind to Germany Denmark is paving the way for state financing for the Jutland hydrogen backbone pipeline to export surplus wind power to Germany, the energy ministry said. Political parties agreed five framework conditions that need to be met for grid operator Energinet to go-ahead with the project including a 1.4-GW or 44% of total capacity booking requirement by private companies. China’s domestic renewable energy certificate trade volume up tenfold in 2023 The annual trading volume of China’s domestic renewable energy certificates, called Green Electricity Certificates, increased almost tenfold to 96 million certificates in 2023, a record high for a year, from 9.69 million certificates in 2022, data from the country’s GEC trading platform showed. Fortescue misses FID date for key renewable hydrogen project under Genex PPA Fortescue Future Industry has missed the deadline for final investment decision (FID) for a key renewable hydrogen/ammonia project in Australia, thus failing to meet a buyer’s condition in a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Genex Power, Genex said April 2.

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Infographic: The impact of the total solar eclipse on US power generation

A total solar eclipse will cross North America on April 8, resulting in heavily reduced solar power plant output. It will differ from an annular eclipse in that the sun will be entirely blocked by the moon, rather than partially blocked with a visible halo of sunlight. Power markets in Texas and the Mid-Atlantic region are expected to see the biggest impact in solar-powered generation. Related feature: US solar eclipse expected to significantly reduce solar power output in several markets (subscriber content) Click here for the full-size infographic