US natural gas storage rises 77 Bcf to 1.567 Tcf spurring NYMEX futures rally

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Chilly spring weather across much of the country curbed net injections to US natural gas storage in the final week of April, helping to widen the inventory deficit and propel a rally in NYMEX gas futures.

The US Energy Information Administration May 5 reported a larger-than-expected injection of 77 Bcf to gas storage for the week ended April 29 in a build that barely undershot the prior five-year average.

The injection was 16 Bcf more than anticipated from an S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of analysts, which called for a 61 Bcf addition to stocks, and just 1 Bcf shy of the prior five-year average build.

As a result, US working gas inventories climbed to 1.567 Tcf. The storage deficit to 2021 narrowed again as stocks climbed to 382 Bcf, or about 20%, below the year-ago level of 1.949 Tcf. The inventory deficit to the prior five-year average expanded to its widest yet this season, leaving stocks 306 Bcf, or about 16%, below the historical average of 1.873 Tcf, EIA data showed.

The NYMEX Henry Hub June contract rebounded about 15 cents, or nearly 2%, after the storage report's release, rising to $8.30/MMBtu after falling steadily in overnight trading from fresh 14-year highs in the mid-$8/MMBtu range, CME Group data showed.

Weather

Unseasonably low temperatures across the Midwest and the Northeast through April and even into early May have been a key driver of the NYMEX futures rally and the widening storage deficit.

In the week ended April 29, population-weighted temperatures across the Upper Midwest averaged a chilly 54 degrees Fahrenheit, while the Northeast rose to just 55 F. During the week, US residential-commercial gas demand, led by the two key heating regions, briefly spiked to more than 25 Bcf/d, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

Storage builds of 15 Bcf in both the Midwest and the Northeast, totaled about 4 Bcf below average for the corresponding week. In the Mountain and Pacific regions, the weekly storage injections were also undersized, but more than offset by a larger-than-average build in the South-Central region.

During the week in progress, a smaller but not insignificant jump in US heating demand to around 20 Bcf/d could limit storage injections again. According to preliminary forecasts S&P Global published, the EIA is likely to report a storage injection in a 65-75 Bcf range for the week ending May 6, compared with a five-year average injection of 82 Bcf in the corresponding week.

Supply

The chilly start to spring this year has increased the call on already-strained US gas supply.

After trending at more than 93 Bcf/d in April, domestic production has slumped since the start of May to average just 92.6 Bcf/d this month, according to S&P Global data. While the US rig count, at 803, is now estimated at its highest in over two years, US gas production has continued to flounder, trending about 2-3 Bcf/d below record highs recorded in December 2021.

According to S&P Global analysts, a rebound in production to over 95 Bcf/d would likely ease acute supply concerns in the market, allowing gas futures prices to retreat below $6/MMBtu. An increase to over 97 Bcf/d is forecast to have an even larger impact, likely easing prices to around $4 to $5/MMBtu. Current supply projections show output topping 95 Bcf/d by midsummer and surpassing 97 Bcf/d by sometime in the fourth quarter, potentially giving pause to the NYMEX rally by later this year.

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