Infographic: China’s property market remains a drag on steel demand

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China's property sector has been in shambles over the past few years and remains the biggest drag on domestic steel demand. The property market has trended downwards in the first quarter of 2024. With no major recovery signs in new home sales, China’s new home construction starts are likely to remain on the downwards trajectory in the foreseeable future.

The slowing property sector has triggered debt risks locally, leading Beijing to order local governments to downsize infrastructure projects, which has also undermined the growth momentum in infrastructure steel needs, adding to the demand slump.

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Nickel Industries expects robust Q2 on normalized mining, stronger prices

Record monthly mine production achieved in March Trial sales of nickel cathode to aeronautical company Nickel Industries expects a strong April-June quarter supported by normalized mining operations, a 6% decline in rotary kiln electric furnace operating costs over the past quarter and a healthier market environment, the Australia-based company with projects in Indonesia said April 30. The spot LME nickel price is currently at $19,069/mt around 15% above the March average. In January-March, Nickel Industries mined 3.23 million wmt of ore in Indonesia that were processed into 31,840 mt of nickel with almost 95% of this contained in nickel pig iron and the rest in matte. Quarter on quarter, the mine output and nickel production declined by 24.0% and 7.6%, respectively. Nickel sales, at 32,760 mt, were 4.8% lower on the quarter. Delays by the Indonesian authorities in the issuance of a Rencana Kerja dan Anggaaran Biaya (RKAB) -- an annual application based on the previous year’s operating and environmental performance -- resulted in reduced ore sales for the first two months of 2024. That said, the Hengjaya Mine, in which Nickel Industries holds 80%, was one of the first from over 700 mines in Indonesia to have the RKAB license approved this year with the permit coming through in late February. In March it broke a monthly record with ore sales reaching 840,138 wmt despite higher than average rainfall and is on track to mine 12 million wmt this year. The current RKAB is approved for three years and can be amended during this period to allow Hengjaya to increase production as it prepares to supply limonite ore to the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plant currently under construction. Huayue Nickel Cobalt Project During January-March, the Huayue Nickel Cobalt HPAL project, in which Nickel Industries holds a 10% interest, produced 21,204 mt of nickel and 1,884 mt of cobalt in mixed hydroxide precipitate. The company’s attributable share of the output comprised 2,120 mt of nickel and 188 mt of cobalt. Huayue recently released its Scope 1 and 2 carbon intensity for 2023, as measured by London-based Skarn Associates, at 6.97 mt of CO2 per ton of nickel, positioning it as one of the lowest carbon emitting nickel processors globally, according to Nickel Industries. Excelsior Nickel Cobalt The first quarter saw progress with earthworks and footings work at the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL site, with key long lead items being purchased and fabricated in China ahead of their delivery in the coming months. During the quarter Nickel Industries acquired an additional 13.75% interest in the Excelsior project, increasing its equity stake it to 27.5%. Excelsior will replicate the Huayue facility, but will have the added flexibility of being able to also produce nickel sulfate and nickel cathode on top of mixed hydroxide precipitate. Nickel Industries made its first ever trial supply of nickel cathode in the quarter, with delivery of 200 mt to an unnamed western space and aeronautical company. While nickel cathode production will only commence when the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt project comes online towards the end of 2025, the trial supply will allow nickel cathode to undergo pre-qualification testing, according to Nickel Industries' managing director Justin Werner. He added that the test results could lead to a larger volume, long-term supply contract in response to global interest in the low carbon fully traceable nickel that Excelsior will produce. The company said the first contract was an endorsement of the Excelsior project as its first HPAL plant that will be capable of producing three products, including mixed hydroxide precipitate feedstock for class-1 nickel, nickel sulfate as feed for EVs battery cathodes, and nickel cathode. Nickel Industries said it had its Excelsior funding obligations supported by $400 million of bank loans syndicated during the quarter and claimed the plant -- like Huayue -- would be one of the lowest carbon-emitting nickel projects globally. Platts Connect: News & Insights (spglobal.com)

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Lithium markets present divergent views as China announces policy to push EV sales

Attractive trade-in measures aim at boosting vehicle sales Lithium oversupply remains in China Lithium prices down sharply on year despite recent jump China’s recent policy push aimed at boosting sales of electric vehicles invoked diverged views from lithium market participants as the country continues to face lithium oversupply amid weak downstream demand, market sources said April 30. On April 26, China, as part of its broader energy transition plans, introduced a new policy to encourage trade-ins of polluting vehicles with EVs or highly fuel-efficient cars. Demand from EVs and energy storage is likely to rise significantly due to the incentive measures, some market sources said. China’s lithium prices could see a fresh uptrend during the third quarter, led by these measures and downstream demand potentially surpassing current market expectations, the sources said. However, some other market sources said they expected prices to remain under pressure in the wake of existing overcapacity. Any output cuts or suspension of high-cost mines are not enough to keep total supply in check, the sources said. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 114,000/mt on a DDP China basis April 29, up Yuan 5,000/mt on the day and Yuan 6,000/mt month on month. However, prices have been down 36.7% from the same period of last year. Attractive Measures China’s recent policy initiative is part of an action plan devised by the State Council in March, which focused on promoting large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods to stimulate domestic consumption and further advance China’s green transition efforts. The new policy will remain effective until Dec. 31. China will provide a one-time fixed subsidy to personal consumers who scrap passenger cars that meet emission standards of China III or below, or EVs registered before April 30, 2018, according to a statement released by seven government departments, including the Ministry of Commerce. The subsidy would amount to Yuan 10,000 ($1,381) for replacing old cars with EVs, and Yuan 7,000 for opting new cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less, according to the statement. Following this policy, several provinces and cities in China have released trade-in measures to boost EV sales in April. Meanwhile, vehicle producers continued to cut sales prices to increase market share and boost sales, which could help push domestic EV sales to some extent, industry sources said. China’s retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 720,000 units in March, up 37% year on year but flat month on month, according to the data released by the China Passenger Car Association. The trade-in policy will benefit China’s EV sales significantly, which could lead to an increment of nearly 1 million units if the policy is executed properly, said CPCA secretary general Cui Dongshu. On the energy storage side, a rapid growth in China’s installation of energy storage systems could be seen due to other relevant stimulus measures, sources said. However, some other sources said they were yet to see any significant increase so far. Lithium supply, prices China’s lithium salt supply is expected to continue to rise in the months ahead due to an increase in production from key producing provinces and rising imports, sources said. Producers in Qinghai province, a key lithium salt production hub, are set to ramp up output as weather conditions improve, sources said. Meanwhile, producers in Jiangxi are also set to resume output, and China is continuously seeing higher imports, according to sources. The Yichun government of Jiangxi province recently issued environmental measures aimed at proper storage of lithium slag, raising concerns among market participants, sources said. However, the move will not affect production of lithium salt converters in Jiangxi, but it could increase production costs in the long term, an eastern-China based analyst said. China's lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices increased in the week to April 26 on the back of higher spodumene trade, sources said. However, price growth was limited due to weaker-than-expected restocking demand ahead of the upcoming Labor Day holiday on May 1, they said. The outlook for China’s lithium markets has remained bearish in the long term amid a supply surplus, although high production costs and a potential demand recovery could lend some support to lithium prices in the short term, some sources said. Platts Connect: News & Insights (spglobal.com)

News

UK's Technology Minerals to sell Irish lithium exploration licenses

Leinster Lithium Project comprised of 23 exploration licenses Several European lithium mining/refining projects set to launch this year UK project developer and battery metals recycler Technology Minerals is to sell its exploration licenses in Leinster, Ireland, to project developer European Lithium. The London-listed company said April 22 the purchase would take place through the sales of 100% of the issued share capital of its wholly owned subsidiary and the owner of its exploration licenses LRH Resources limited. The proposed sale price is $10 million to be settled through the transfer of the equivalent value of shares held by European Lithium in Critical Metals Corp. calculated at 90% of the closing market price of the shares on the day before the signing of a heads of agreement. The shares in Critical Metals will be held in escrow until Feb. 28, 2025. LRH Resources' Leinster Lithium Project is comprised of 23 exploration licenses containing significant lithium bearing spodumene pegmatites. Technology Minerals said it will retain its 100% interest in the Asturmet project in northern Spain. "The agreement is an endorsement of our ability to identify and develop early-stage projects with significant potential," said Alex Stanbury, Technology Minerals chief executive. "It also underscores our strategy to advance early-stage projects up the value curve and attract potential buyers or partners to bring additional value to the company and its shareholders," he added. European Lithium chair, Tony Sage said that the acquisition demonstrates his company's commitment to expanding in the European lithium industry and its ability to identify and secure promising lithium properties. "This also demonstrates the value of our investment in Critical Metals Corp. As we move forward, we can utilize the investment again and again without depleting our cash reserves, he said. European Lithium, an Australia-listed mining exploration and development company is focusing on the development of the Wolfsberg project in Cezch Republic. The company is aiming to be the first and largest local lithium supplier in an integrated European battery supply chain. Several European lithium mining and refining projects are poised to launch commercial operations this year, supported by a push among original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, to regionalize their battery supply chains and reduce dependence on imported material. On March 18, The European Council adopted the European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) The regulation requires that EU capacities along the strategic raw material supply chain satisfy at least 10% of EU annual consumption of mined material, at least 40% consumption of processed products and at least 25% consumption of recycled material. The regulation also requires that no more than 65% of the EU's annual consumption of each strategic raw material at any relevant stage of processing should come from a single third country. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed lithium carbonate at $14,500/mt CIF Europe April 22, unchanged on the month, while lithium hydroxide was assessed at $14,500/mt CIF Europe on March 18, also stable on the month. Platts Connect: News & Insights (spglobal.com)

News

Pilbara Minerals boosts spodumene output in March quarter, sees lithium demand recovery

Nine-month production up 9.1% on year March quarter sales rise 14.4% on year Sales for 9-month period up 9.3% on year Australia's Pilbara Minerals boosted spodumene concentrate production 20.8% year over year to a record 179,006 dmt in the third quarter of the 2023 financial year, the company reported in quarterly report released April 19. The volume was also up 2% quarter on quarter and brought the nine-month total to 499,200 dmt of spodumene concentrate, 9.1% higher year on year. The company’s financial year runs from July to June. The miner said that, although there had been production challenges early in the March quarter due to adverse weather events and ore supply challenges, the P680 primary rejection facility had achieved nameplate production capacity in the second half, with a monthly production record of 80,000 dmt achieved in March. Besides the expanded production capacity of P680 with no shutdowns, the monthly record was also helped by higher ore lithium head grade and higher lithium recoveries due to operational improvements including the temporary mobile ore sorters. Pilbara said it was temporarily using mobile ore sorters to supplement ore feed and to gather in-field intelligence on the use and optimization of ore sorting technology on mine ore feed ahead of the start of commissioning of the P680 crushing and ore sorting facility in the June quarter. Sales up 14.4% on year Pilbara Lithium’s sales for the March quarter were 165,100 dmt, up 14.4% year on year and up 3% quarter on quarter. The average realized price of the quarterly sales were $804/dmt CIF China, $83.4% lower on the year and down 28% quarter on quarter. Pilbara said the quarterly sales were lower than the production volume due to the timing of shipments, with two totaling 25,900 dmt made during the first half of April. “The company continues to see ongoing customer demand for its product and is not stockpiling production volume,” it said. Sales for the nine-month period totaled 471,400 dmt, up 9.3% on the year, at an average realized price was $1,343/dmt CIF China, down 72.8% on the year. “The pre-auction sale of 5,000 dmt at $1,106/dmt SC5.5 in March reflects the ongoing demand and positive pricing for unallocated production volume,” Pilbara said. Lithium price increases are "feeling material" when looking at the 60 days up to mid-April, Pilbara Minerals' Henderson said. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessment of lithium spodumene concentrate with 6% lithium oxide content (SC6) has risen 11.3% since the start of 2024 to $1,080/mt FOB Australia April 19. Mid-Stream demo plant project on schedule The company said its Mid-Stream demonstration plant project continued to progress on schedule and budget with detailed design, and was still expected to achieve first lithium salt production in the June quarter of the 2025 financial year. Pilbara’s JV with POSCO, POSCO Pilbara Lithium Solution Co., also completed commissioning activities and started production ramp up for Train 1 of the 43 ,000 mt/year lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM) chemical facility in Gwangyang, South Korea, Pilbara said. It said small volumes of uncertified LHM were produced during the quarter as part of commissioning with the ramp-up to full capacity estimated within 12-18 months. The JV also continued major construction works for Train 2 at the plant, with commissioning expected to start during the second half of 2024. Platts Connect: News & Insights (spglobal.com)